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Dollar Slippage Post-Payrolls as Markets Judge Fed Taper as a Way Off

FOREX
  • Having held steady for much of the Friday morning, the greenback reversed sharply on the back of the weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls report, in which both headline change in jobs and the participation rate fell below expectations. Markets took the data to mean the Fed were further off their taper pivot than previously seen, putting the USD under pressure while equities and Treasury markets made solid gains.
  • At the other end of the table, AUD outperformed all others in G10, reversing much of the recent underperformance and garnering some support from more buoyant commodities prices. AUD/USD bounced back above the 50-dma ahead of the close, completing a solid bounce off multi-month lows at the $0.7646 lows.
  • Focus in the coming week turns to rate decisions from both the ECB and BoC. Both banks are seen keeping policy unchanged, but markets remain on watch for any signals of policy tightening in the near future.
  • The Fed enter their pre-decision blackout period, keeping focus on the key data releases including the German ZEW survey, CPI from both China and the US and the prelim Uni of Michigan sentiment index.
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