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Downside GDP surprise increases the probability of a post-September pause

UK DATA
  • A decent downside surprise to July GDP with a 0.3ppt miss to bring the data in at -0.5%M/M. There are no revisions to prior data published today following the Blue Book release.
  • The services sector drove the miss, with a 0.4ppt downside surprise at -0.5%M/M while IP and construction were in line with expectations.
  • The ONS notes that the biggest downward drag on services output was from the health sector with the NHS strike action dragging the series down -2.1%M/M. Teachers strikes also contributed to the fall in output.
  • Information and communication also contributed to the downside.
  • GBPUSD fell from 1.2487 on the release and at the time of writing is around 40 pips lower trading around 1.2450.
  • This data in some ways may have more impact on the upcoming MPC decisions than yesterday's labour market data which showed more deterioration of the labour market but with wage growth still uncomfortably high.
  • Next week's inflation data is still of great importance and overall we still see a September hike, but today's data increases the probability of a pause in future meetings.
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