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GERMANY: Election Exit Polls Leave Some Uncertatinty On Coalition Possiilities

GERMANY
Policy NewsCEEMEAEurozoneGermanyBulletPolitical RiskFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsMarkets

Exit polls on the German election so far leave some uncertainty on potential coalition outcomes, while the possibility of debt brake reform apperas likely as of now.

  • Exit poll results stand at: CDU/CSU 28.9% (24.1% 2021), SPD 16.2% (25.1% '21), Greens 13.0% (14.8% '21), FDP 4.9% (11.5% '21), The Left 8.5% (4.9% '21), AfD 19.9% (10.3% '21), BSW 4.8% (new).
  • Both FDP and BSW remain with some chances of gaining above 5% of votes ultimately - and would not get any Bundestag seats if they fail to do so as per a constitutional threshold.
  • The "Grand Coalition" of centre-right CDU/CSU and centre-left SPD (which was seen as the most likely ahead of the election) would only have a Bundetag majority if both FDP and BSW will remain below named threshold. Current polls tilt towards that but leave some uncertainty.
  • If pro-business FDP were to make it into Bundestag, that would make a "Germany" coalition (consisting of CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP) the most probable. Such a three-party coalition outcome would be seen to bring less stability to the government. Another option in that case would be the "Kenya" coalition (CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens) - which apperas rather unlikely, though, as CSU and Greens have partially opposing views.
  • From a debt brake point of view, a 2/3rds Bundestag majority in favour of parties open for reform seems likely from current polls. However, the Left will likely be needed for such reform, and might push for some concessions from the governing parties then, complicating negotiations.
  • More clear results are expected overnight.
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Exit polls on the German election so far leave some uncertainty on potential coalition outcomes, while the possibility of debt brake reform apperas likely as of now.

  • Exit poll results stand at: CDU/CSU 28.9% (24.1% 2021), SPD 16.2% (25.1% '21), Greens 13.0% (14.8% '21), FDP 4.9% (11.5% '21), The Left 8.5% (4.9% '21), AfD 19.9% (10.3% '21), BSW 4.8% (new).
  • Both FDP and BSW remain with some chances of gaining above 5% of votes ultimately - and would not get any Bundestag seats if they fail to do so as per a constitutional threshold.
  • The "Grand Coalition" of centre-right CDU/CSU and centre-left SPD (which was seen as the most likely ahead of the election) would only have a Bundetag majority if both FDP and BSW will remain below named threshold. Current polls tilt towards that but leave some uncertainty.
  • If pro-business FDP were to make it into Bundestag, that would make a "Germany" coalition (consisting of CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP) the most probable. Such a three-party coalition outcome would be seen to bring less stability to the government. Another option in that case would be the "Kenya" coalition (CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens) - which apperas rather unlikely, though, as CSU and Greens have partially opposing views.
  • From a debt brake point of view, a 2/3rds Bundestag majority in favour of parties open for reform seems likely from current polls. However, the Left will likely be needed for such reform, and might push for some concessions from the governing parties then, complicating negotiations.
  • More clear results are expected overnight.