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EUR Fading, Magnitude of ECB Hike in Focus

FOREX
  • The single currency is softer ahead of the open, with EUR/USD erasing the entirety of the Asia-Pac session strength to settle back below pre-Fed rate decision levels. The Fed decision provided only brief volatility in the greenback, with normal service resuming headed through to the second half of the week.
  • The Norwegian central bank raised rates by 25bps, alongside expectations, with the bank also name-checking June as the next most likely hike. There were few surprises in the bank statement, with the board once again stating their focus on the weaker-than-expected currency and its spillover effects for inflation. NOK reversed initial post-decision weakness to re-align NOK with the modest bounce in the oil price. NOK is among the strongest currencies in G10 ahead of NY.
  • CHF is softer, helping USD/CHF bounce off the cycle low printed overnight at 0.8820. For the bouce to persist, markets need to re-take 0.8995 - the Tuesday high - for any progres toward the 50-dma of 0.9126.
  • Focus turns to the upcoming ECB rate decision, at which the bank are seen raising rates by 25bps, although a not insignificant minority see the possibility of a 50bps step today. Lagarde's subsequent press conference will also be carefully watched for signals on how close to the peak rate the ECB have now become.
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