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EUR Market Wrap

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  • Bunds closed 3-5bp tighter with early support from lower-than-expected flash inflation data from France and Spain that was steadily pared before US data took yields lower again on a modest dovish reaction to US PCE data that confirmed trend rates very similar to what Fed Governor Waller had indicated last week. WoW moves of -15bp/-7bp.
  • Main/XO ended +0.3bp/+1bp at 57.5bp/307bp for WoW moves of -0.7bp/-5bp while €IG was flat (Corps +0.2bp, Fins -0.1bp, €HY +2bp) for a WoW move of +1.7bp (Corps +1.5bp, Fins +2bp, €HY -8bp). All sectors were wider on the week with Energy and Cycs close to +3bp. $IG was -0.4bp (Corps -0.2bp, Fins -0.7bp, $HY -1bp) for a WoW move of -1.5bp (Corps -1.1bp, Fins -2.3bp, $HY -2bp).
  • SXXP ended +0.5% while SPX was -0.1% for WoW moves of +2.7%/+0.6%. WoW €IG movers included Forvia +23%, LVMH, +19%, Kering +18%, Prosus +18%, Compagnie Financiere Richemont +18%, AIA Group +17%, Global Payments -9%, Commonwealth Bank of Aus -7%, National Australia Bank -7%, Novo Nordisk -6%.
  • SX5E/SPX futures are flat. The main macro focus today has been around the weekend news of loosening property restrictions in 3 large China cities. In the equity space, we saw very large gains for China/HK markets particularly in property related areas. China September PMIs were mostly weaker than forecast but this was largely ignored by the market.
  • Looking ahead, we have the second UK GDP estimate, along with regional EU inflation details (with German figures out). In the US session, we have the MNI Chicago PMI print, as well as hearing from Fed Chair Powell.

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  • Bunds closed 3-5bp tighter with early support from lower-than-expected flash inflation data from France and Spain that was steadily pared before US data took yields lower again on a modest dovish reaction to US PCE data that confirmed trend rates very similar to what Fed Governor Waller had indicated last week. WoW moves of -15bp/-7bp.
  • Main/XO ended +0.3bp/+1bp at 57.5bp/307bp for WoW moves of -0.7bp/-5bp while €IG was flat (Corps +0.2bp, Fins -0.1bp, €HY +2bp) for a WoW move of +1.7bp (Corps +1.5bp, Fins +2bp, €HY -8bp). All sectors were wider on the week with Energy and Cycs close to +3bp. $IG was -0.4bp (Corps -0.2bp, Fins -0.7bp, $HY -1bp) for a WoW move of -1.5bp (Corps -1.1bp, Fins -2.3bp, $HY -2bp).
  • SXXP ended +0.5% while SPX was -0.1% for WoW moves of +2.7%/+0.6%. WoW €IG movers included Forvia +23%, LVMH, +19%, Kering +18%, Prosus +18%, Compagnie Financiere Richemont +18%, AIA Group +17%, Global Payments -9%, Commonwealth Bank of Aus -7%, National Australia Bank -7%, Novo Nordisk -6%.
  • SX5E/SPX futures are flat. The main macro focus today has been around the weekend news of loosening property restrictions in 3 large China cities. In the equity space, we saw very large gains for China/HK markets particularly in property related areas. China September PMIs were mostly weaker than forecast but this was largely ignored by the market.
  • Looking ahead, we have the second UK GDP estimate, along with regional EU inflation details (with German figures out). In the US session, we have the MNI Chicago PMI print, as well as hearing from Fed Chair Powell.