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Fed Rate Path Ends Week Of Significant Higher For Longer Push

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds rate expectations are closing out the week with some particularly large increases with a clear higher for longer theme. It has seen the terminal rate pushed into the July meeting and a further 10bps of cuts trimmed since Friday’s post-payrolls close, now pricing 27bps of cuts through 2H23.
  • Sitting with 26bp hike for Mar (unch on the day, +2.5bp from Friday’s close), a cumulative 46bp for May (+0.5bp, +6.5bp).
  • The main moves come further out though, with the cumulative 60bp to a terminal 5.18% in July (+4bp, +17.5bp) before cutting to now only 4.91% (+6bp, +29bp).
  • Next up is CPI on Tue with today's historical SA revisions plus new 2023 weights added to the mix.
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