Free Trial

Final Polls Show Race Too Close To Call, Second Round Likely


4 May marks the start of the blackout period for opinion polls ahead of the general election taking place on 14 May, and at present the race remains too close to call. Both President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu are polling in the high-40s in percentage terms, which would not be enough for an outright first round victory instead pushing the contest into a first-ever second round run-off on 28 May.

  • Middle East Eye reports: "Breakaway opposition presidential candidate Muharrem Ince said he would support Kilicdaroglu without condition if he kicked out former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, both formerly with the AKP." Davutoglu's Future Party and Babacan's Democracy and Progress Party are running on the list of Kilicdaroglu's CHP as part of the anti-Erdogan Nation Alliance.
  • Ince is polling at a lowly 1-4% in recent polls, but should he withdraw in the last week of the contest and back Kilicdaroglu it could provide enough support to push him over the 50%+1 mark to win a first-round majority.

Chart 1. Presidential Election Opinion Polling, First Round (LHS) and Run-Off (Erdogan vs Kilicdaroglu) (RHS), % and 4 Poll Moving Average

Source: TAG, Optimar, Aksoy, SER-AR, TEAM, Gezici, BLUGU, TUSIAR, Artibir, ORC, Area, Piar, MAK, SONAR, Yoneylem, HBS, AR-G, ALF, Saros, TekAr, Metropoll, ASAL, Themis, MNI

To read the full story


MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.