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POWER: French Spot Power to Edge Down

POWER

French spot power is forecast to edge down with forecasts for lower demand amid milder weather, despite lower wind output on the day. Industrial action in France on Thursday is curtailing hydropower generation. 

  • France Base Power JAN 25 closed down 3.4% at 102.86 EUR/MWh on 4 Dec.
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.8% at 68.43 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 up 1% at 47.51 EUR/MWh
  • Nuclear availability in France was unchanged at 82% of capacity as of Thursday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Reuters.
  • EdF workers and the French gas and power sectors are striking until Thursday 21:00CET. Hydropower generation is currently curtailed by 2650 MW and 470MW pumping, remit data showed.
  • So far, no nuclear generation has been affected by industrial action.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures will remain above normal before falling below normal from 10 December.
  • Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 9.5C on Friday, up from 7C on Thursday and above the seasonal average of 5.2C.
  • Power demand in Paris is forecast to fall to 59.94GW on Friday, down from 62.3GW on Thursday according to Bloomberg.
  • Wind output in France is forecast to decline to 8.76GW during base load on Friday, down from 10.38GW forecasted for Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast to increase to 3.05GW during peak load on Friday, up from 2.38GW forecasted for Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Residual load in France is forecast to decrease to 46.27GWh/h on Friday, down from 48.38GWh/h on Thursday according to Reuters.
  • France’s hydro balance has been revised higher on the day to end at 1.53TWh on 19 December, compared with 1.34TWh forecasted a day earlier.

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