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Gilts And GBP Underperform As Truss Exit Probability Rises


In the wake of today's events, PM Liz Truss exit date betting market probability on SMarkets has crossed 50% for a 2022 exit. This was 27% late this morning and under 10% early yesterday.

  • While UK assets had benefited from anticipation that the government would change course on its fiscal plans, Gilts and Sterling have underperformed this afternoon.
  • Potentially some profit-taking involved but rising political risk likely a factor too, with policy still uncertain ahead of the unveiling of the Government's fiscal .plan (under a new Chancellor) on Oct 31.

"When will Liz Truss be replaced as Prime Minister?" Exit Date 2022 Implied Prob %Source: SMarkets

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