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Gilts early losers, but rest of core FI catching up with losses

BONDS
  • An early lurch lower for SONIA futures (which has since been around 50% retraced) saw gilts as the early movers in core FI space. Bunds and, to a lesser extent, Treasuries have since followed lower with moves in 10-year Bund yields now similar to those seen in 10-year gilts on the day.
  • This was in response to a combination of factors: continued repricing of the UK curve due to the higher than expected wage and inflation data earlier this week, as well as this morning's better-than-expected retail sales print. Online sales were the driver with people driving less due to high fuel prices. Consumer confidence hit a new low, however, and the MPC is expected to act for inflation and in spite of activity data.
  • The only event remaining on this week's calendar is a speech by Fed's Barkin. Markets will already start to look ahead to next week's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-9 today at 118-18 with 10y UST yields up 3.9bp at 2.922% and 2y yields up 4.0bp at 3.241%.
  • Bund futures are down -1.23 today at 152.93 with 10y Bund yields up 7.2bp at 1.171% and Schatz yields up 5.5bp at 0.788%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.82 today at 113.42 with 10y yields up 6.9bp at 2.377% and 2y yields up 5.8bp at 2.484%.
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