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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
The polling firm 538 has unveiled its new 2024 presidential election forecast model, projecting that Vice President Kamala Harris has an implied probability of 58% of winning the election in November. Trump is assigned a 41% implied probability of winning.
- The 538 model, suspended since Biden withdrew from the race, is notably more bullish on Harris than other key election forecasts, including former 538 owner Nate Silver, whose forecast gives Harris a 52% chance of winning and Trump a 46.9% chance of winning.
- 538 notes: "With 75 days to go, we think anything from a clear Trump victory to a clear Harris win is possible (while a close win either way is most likely)."
- "Despite the close contest, Harris’s expected performance in the polls is much better than Biden’s was a month ago. Her margin is improved now not only in the Northern battlegrounds, which were already comparatively friendly to Democrats, but the diverse Sun Belt states, too. There, Harris’s gains with Black, Latino and young voters could prove decisive. If she retains her strength in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and locks Trump out of Georgia or Nevada, his path to winning the majority of Electoral College votes will be completely cut off."
Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast
Source: 538
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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