USDJPY TECHS: Heading North
- RES 4: 138.17 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 137.90.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 137.64 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 136.92 High Feb 28
- PRICE: 136.63 @ 06:43 GMT Mar 2
- SUP 1: 135.26 Low Mar 1
- SUP 2: 133.61 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 132.55 Low Feb 15
- SUP 4: 131.52 Low Feb 14
USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Price has pierced 136.67, the 38.2% retracement of the downleg between Oct 21 and Jan 16. A clear break of this hurdle would set the scene for a climb towards 138.17, the Dec 15 high. On the downside, the support to watch lies at 133.61, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal a possible reversal.
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EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C Jan 30, 2022
Germany, France, Belgium, Greece and the EU will all look to issue bills this week. We look for issuance of E15.8bln at first round operations, down from E18.9bln last week.
- This morning, Belgium will look to sell an indicative E1.2bln of the 1.5-month Mar 9, 2023 TC (range E1.0-1.4bln).
- Tomorrow, Greece will look to sell E625mln of the new 13-week May 5, 2023 GTB.
- The EU will conclude issuance tomorrow with E1.0bln of the 3-month May 5, 2023 EU-bill and E1.5bln of the new 6-month Aug 4, 2023 EU-bill on offer.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan downleg
- RES 3: 133.51 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 132.87 High Jan 11
- RES 1: 130.62/131.58 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
- PRICE: 130.23 @ 06:38 GMT Jan 31
- SUP 1: 128.36/127.23 Low Jan 20 / 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
USDJPY is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. The trend direction is down. Price is trading below key short-term resistance at 131.58, the Jan 18 high and below the 20-day EMA, at 130.62. A resumption of weakness would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection - the bear trigger is 127.23, Jan 16 low. On the upside, a break of 131.58 would be a bullish development, signal a short-term reversal and open 133.51, the 50-day EMA.
BOJ: Fixed Rate Purchase Offer
The BoJ offers to buy an unlimited amount of 5- to 10-Year JGBs at a fixed rate of 0.50%.
