HICP Edges Up in April Flash

EUROZONE APR FLASH HICP +0.7% M/M (=FCST); MAR +0.9% M/M

EUROZONE APR FLASH HICP +7.0% Y/Y (FCST +6.9%); MAR +6.9% Y/Y

EUROZONE APR FLASH CORE HICP +1.0% M/M, +5.6% Y/Y (= FCST); MAR +5.7% Y/Y

• Eurozone inflation edged up by 0.1pp to +7.0% y/y in the April flash data, against consensus expectations of holding steady at +6.9% y/y. Energy base-effects will have largely pushed the print up after having dropped significantly in March.
• Prices continued to accelerate on a short-term basis, increasing +0.7% m/m.
• Core HICP edged down by 0.1pp to +5.6% y/y in April, slowing from the euro-era high recorded in March.
• This follows a decrease in Spanish core inflation and indications of easing German state core CPIs.
• Core prices cooled on largely on the back of slowing non-energy industrial goods (down 0.4pp at +6.2% y/y), whilst services inflation continued to accelerate, up 0.1pp at +5.2% y/y.
• Despite the headline deceleration, core service prices continue to be a key concern for the ECB and will again add fuel for the hawks.
• Markets are pricing around 28.5bp for Thursday's meeting, with 25bp still preferred.