MNI BRIEF: China Crude Steel Output Down Over Jan Feb

MNI China Press Digest March 18:Inflows, Consumption, Industry

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY235.6 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1733 Tues; -0.54% Y/Y

MNI WATCH: BCB To Hike 100BP As Signaled, Eyes On May Guidance

MNI BRIEF: China To Release Childcare Subsidies, Boost Income

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, Finland Due Tuesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 6-Month ESM-Bill Auction on Tuesday

MNI: US JAN BUSINESS INVENTORIES +0.3%; SALES -0.8%

GERMANY: Handelsblatt Report on Lingering Uncertainties Ahead of Bundestag

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

AUSSIE BONDS: Holding Richer After CPI Data But Off Bests

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM flat & XM -4.0) are mixed but 2-4bps stronger versus pre-CPI Monthly levels.

  • While November headline inflation picked up 0.2pp to 2.3% y/y, the focus was on trimmed mean today given current state & federal electricity rebates. This underlying measure eased 0.3pp to 3.2% to where it was in September.
  • However, the RBA continues to focus on quarterly CPI data and it wants to be confident that inflation will return sustainably to the band. It is too early to tell if monthly inflation is trending lower again, thus attention will be firmly on Q4 CPI on January 29.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 4bps cheaper, with a steeper curve. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at -17bps.
  • The swaps curve has bear-steepened, with rates flat to 4bps higher.
  • The bills strip is slightly mixed, but 1-3bps richer after the data.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps softer across meetings after the data, with July leading. A 25bp rate cut is back to being more than fully priced by April (117%), with the probability of a February cut standing at 64%.
  • Before the data, the likelihood of a 25bp cut in April had slipped to 98%.
  • The local calendar shows retail sales and trade balances tomorrow.
203 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

ACGBs (YM flat & XM -4.0) are mixed but 2-4bps stronger versus pre-CPI Monthly levels.

  • While November headline inflation picked up 0.2pp to 2.3% y/y, the focus was on trimmed mean today given current state & federal electricity rebates. This underlying measure eased 0.3pp to 3.2% to where it was in September.
  • However, the RBA continues to focus on quarterly CPI data and it wants to be confident that inflation will return sustainably to the band. It is too early to tell if monthly inflation is trending lower again, thus attention will be firmly on Q4 CPI on January 29.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 4bps cheaper, with a steeper curve. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at -17bps.
  • The swaps curve has bear-steepened, with rates flat to 4bps higher.
  • The bills strip is slightly mixed, but 1-3bps richer after the data.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps softer across meetings after the data, with July leading. A 25bp rate cut is back to being more than fully priced by April (117%), with the probability of a February cut standing at 64%.
  • Before the data, the likelihood of a 25bp cut in April had slipped to 98%.
  • The local calendar shows retail sales and trade balances tomorrow.