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House To Vote On Stopgap Government Funding Bill Today

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The House of Representatives will vote today on a stopgap funding bill to keep the government funded at Biden-era levels until September 30 – the end of the current fiscal year. The package includes additional Pentagon funding and cuts some non-defence spending.

  • As always, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will need near-unanimous support for his conference. Rep Thomas Massie (R-KY) is again a ‘hard no’ so Johnson can’t drop another vote if all Democrats vote in accordance with the whip, against the bill.
  • The baseline expectation is that President Donald Trump’s influence is likely to be enough to get the package through the House. The more difficult confrontation will come in the Senate later in the week, when Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) will need at least seven Democrat votes to overcome the filibuster. That might rise to eight if Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) votes against the bill.
  • Semafor notes: “A government shutdown later this week would deprive the Federal Reserve of key economic data,” as the Bureau of Labor Statistics would “suspend all operations,” per the agency’s contingency plans.
  • The implied probability of a government shutdown in 2025 remains just over 55%, registering a slight spike yesterday following House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' (D-NY) decision to oppose the bill, according to Polymarket. Kalshi notes that the prospect of a shutdown this week is around 25% - reflecting a prevailing view that a shutdown is not in the interests of either party.  
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The House of Representatives will vote today on a stopgap funding bill to keep the government funded at Biden-era levels until September 30 – the end of the current fiscal year. The package includes additional Pentagon funding and cuts some non-defence spending.

  • As always, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will need near-unanimous support for his conference. Rep Thomas Massie (R-KY) is again a ‘hard no’ so Johnson can’t drop another vote if all Democrats vote in accordance with the whip, against the bill.
  • The baseline expectation is that President Donald Trump’s influence is likely to be enough to get the package through the House. The more difficult confrontation will come in the Senate later in the week, when Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) will need at least seven Democrat votes to overcome the filibuster. That might rise to eight if Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) votes against the bill.
  • Semafor notes: “A government shutdown later this week would deprive the Federal Reserve of key economic data,” as the Bureau of Labor Statistics would “suspend all operations,” per the agency’s contingency plans.
  • The implied probability of a government shutdown in 2025 remains just over 55%, registering a slight spike yesterday following House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' (D-NY) decision to oppose the bill, according to Polymarket. Kalshi notes that the prospect of a shutdown this week is around 25% - reflecting a prevailing view that a shutdown is not in the interests of either party.