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INDIA: Data Release Keeps the Rate Doves at Bay.

INDIA
IndiaGlobalEM BulletBulletAPACEmerging Market NewsRegion
  •  Despite expectations for further moderation, India’s inflation surprised to the upside in August, rising more than expected.
  • Yesterday’s CPI print saw inflation rise 3.65% following July’s release of 3.54% and survey expectations of 3.47%.
  • The Reserve Bank of India forecasts pointed to an expected rise, despite market forecasts.
  • The largest contributor to the CPI basket (food prices) rose 5.66%, up from 5.42% in July.
  • Core inflation (ex-food) rose also to 3.44% from 3.14% in July.
  • Adding to the positive data was an Industrial Production beat.
  • Industrial Production rose 4.8% yoy from a revised July of +4.7% and market estimates of +4.6%.
  • Whilst some market observers have held concerns about the slowdown in GDP seen from April to June, this data print should provide sufficient comfort to the RBI voting members that they have the opportunity to remain on hold for now and watch how the data evolves for the remainder of 2024. 

 

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  •  Despite expectations for further moderation, India’s inflation surprised to the upside in August, rising more than expected.
  • Yesterday’s CPI print saw inflation rise 3.65% following July’s release of 3.54% and survey expectations of 3.47%.
  • The Reserve Bank of India forecasts pointed to an expected rise, despite market forecasts.
  • The largest contributor to the CPI basket (food prices) rose 5.66%, up from 5.42% in July.
  • Core inflation (ex-food) rose also to 3.44% from 3.14% in July.
  • Adding to the positive data was an Industrial Production beat.
  • Industrial Production rose 4.8% yoy from a revised July of +4.7% and market estimates of +4.6%.
  • Whilst some market observers have held concerns about the slowdown in GDP seen from April to June, this data print should provide sufficient comfort to the RBI voting members that they have the opportunity to remain on hold for now and watch how the data evolves for the remainder of 2024.