JAPAN: Backing From Peers Could Give Koizumi Edge In LDP Leadership Contest

The leadership contest for the governing conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) takes place on Friday 27 September, with the election still too close to call. On the timing of the election, there is little in the way of an official schedule. Japan analyst Rintaro Nishimura posts on X: "...the 2021 LDP presidential election winner was determined by around 3:15 PM. Convention to count votes begins around 2 PM on Friday. We should know winner by around the same time." A 1515JST announcement would equate to 0215ET/0715BST/0815CET. 

• Former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba (67), former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (43) and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi (63) lead the way in polling.
• First-round votes are split, with half going to LDP lawmakers and half to grassroots party members. In the likely event no candidate secures a majority, an immediate run-off between the top two candidates takes place. In the runoff, the 368 LDP lawmakers retain their votes, while 47 go to the LDP prefectural parties (one for each region). As such, amassing 208 votes will result in victory.
• The importance of getting the backing of LDP lawmakers, especially in the second round, tips the scales marginally towards Koizumi. According to polling he has the strongest open backing among LDP parliamentarians. Ishiba on the other hand is popular with the public and rank-and-file members, but struggles to gain backing from peers. As such, Ishiba emerging in first place in the first round but then losing to Koizumi in the run-off could be the most feasible outcome.