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July Flash PMIs Theme: Weaker Demand, Softer Inflation (1/3)

EUROZONE DATA

Flash July Eurozone PMIs missed expectations to the downside, with manufacturing heading even deeper into contraction and the services sector decelerating more quickly.

  • Eurozone Manufacturing registered 42.7 vs 43.5 expected and 43.4 prior; Services dipped to 51.1 vs 51.6 expected and 52.0 prior, dragging composite down to 48.9 vs 49.9 prior.
  • Per the HCOB/S&P Global report, the Eurozone Composite was an 8-month low, with Services at 6-month lows and Manufacturing at 38-month lows.
  • The common theme across the German, French, and Eurozone-wide readings is a slowdown in price pressures (focused largely in the manufacturing sector, with services mixed), alongside weaker demand evident across softer output, new orders, and exports.
  • Overall Eurozone PMI future output expectations and new order inflows weakened (to the lowest vs output since 2009), with manufacturer selling prices falling to 2009 levels, with services inflation at a 21-month low. Backlogs are falling sharply and employment was the softest since Feb 2021.
  • If anything the ex-Germany/France data was a bright spot ("eked out only very modest growth" for a 2nd consecutive month for the weakest reading of 2023 "reflecting an increasingly severe downturn in manufacturing and weaker demand growth for services."
  • While Services continues to be a relative bright spot vs a cratering of manufacturing, the data overall paint a picture of overall weakening Eurozone economic activity translating into softer price pressures, as we head to the ECB's decision on Thursday.

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