All signal, no noise
All signal, no noise
All signal, no noise
Latest insights
April data is likely "stale" but still relevant for assessing the fallout from US trade policy
May-12 17:22The Central Bank of Mexico's board will gather Thursday to decide the next move in monetary policy.
May-12 15:04We look ahead to this month's print and also look at the key part of the BOE's MPR with respect to labour market data.
May-12 14:15United States and China reach agreement on 90-day pause in trade war.
May-12 13:39MNI looks at what to expect from the RBA's new monetary policy department.
May-12 07:33MNI discusses the rapid growth of China's main EV manufacturing province.
May-12 03:47
MNI: China Won't Make Japan's Mistake With FX Deal- Advisors

MNI: China Won't Make Japan's Mistake With FX Deal- Advisors

MNI INTERVIEW: China Has Room For Further Monetary Easing

MNI INTERVIEW: China Has Room For Further Monetary Easing
Key Events
Calendar
Open CalendarLink to the pagemyMNIhttps://my.mnimarkets.com/dashboard?widget=/events/key-events-calendarHSC on myMNILink to the pageMore CalendarsLink to the page
MNI: China Won't Make Japan's Mistake With FX Deal- Advisors

MNI: China Won't Make Japan's Mistake With FX Deal- Advisors

MNI INTERVIEW: China Has Room For Further Monetary Easing

MNI INTERVIEW: China Has Room For Further Monetary Easing
Key Events
Calendar
Open CalendarLink to the pagemyMNIhttps://my.mnimarkets.com/dashboard?widget=/events/key-events-calendarHSC on myMNILink to the pageMore CalendarsLink to the pageLatest insights
April data is likely "stale" but still relevant for assessing the fallout from US trade policy
May-12 17:22The Central Bank of Mexico's board will gather Thursday to decide the next move in monetary policy.
May-12 15:04We look ahead to this month's print and also look at the key part of the BOE's MPR with respect to labour market data.
May-12 14:15United States and China reach agreement on 90-day pause in trade war.
May-12 13:39MNI looks at what to expect from the RBA's new monetary policy department.
May-12 07:33MNI discusses the rapid growth of China's main EV manufacturing province.
May-12 03:47Newsletter
MNI US OPEN - US CPI Provides Early Look at Tariff Impact
May-13 09:46MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURGBP Trades a New Cycle Low
May-13 07:28MNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: US CPI In Focus Later
May-13 05:44MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Risk Consolidates After Monday's Surge
May-13 05:25MNI ASIA OPEN: Well That De-Escalated Quickly
May-12 20:09MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Will Trade Breakthrough Last
May-12 19:58MNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - Risk Surges on Tariff Cut Pledge
May-12 11:02MNI US OPEN - US-China Tariff Cuts Exceed Expectations
May-12 09:42MNI Technical Analysis
S&P E-Minis Trend Needle Points South

FI Market Analysis
Read moreFI Market AnalysisA weekly wrap of some of the key themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region.
May 09, 2025 05:50Norges Bank held rates at 4.50% as unanimously expected.
May 08, 2025 01:51The Riksbank held rates at 2.25% as unanimously expected, and introduced a very slight dovish tilt to its guidance.
May 08, 2025 01:45Services Y/Y Exceeds Highest Analyst Estimate
May 07, 2025 01:51FX Market Analysis
Read moreFX Market AnalysisNorges Bank held rates at 4.50% as unanimously expected.
May 08, 2025 01:51The Riksbank held rates at 2.25% as unanimously expected, and introduced a very slight dovish tilt to its guidance.
May 08, 2025 01:45GBP STIRs are little changed this morning, looking through the previously covered Chinese policy easing announcement and reports pointing to the U.S. and UK nearing a trade accord. * SONIA futures flat to +1.5. * BoE-dated OIS is within 1bp of yesterday's closing levels, showing 95bp of cuts through year-end. A reminder that ~88.5bp of cuts were priced through year-end early yesterday after over 100bp of easing was priced over the same horizon last week. * The next 25bp cut is still fully discounted come the end of tomorrow's decision. * An outcome other than a 25bp cut would be surprising but there will be a number of things to watch: any changes to the guidance and the inflation/growth forecast changes, the vote split and the introduction of new scenarios. * For the guidance we expect "restrictive" and "careful" to remain but we question whether "gradual" will be removed and talk through the rationale for this potential change. * On the vote split, consensus expects 8-1 but neither Dhingra nor Mann dissenting for a 50bp cut would be a huge surprise. Taylor or Ramsden are plausible possible dissenters that would be more noteworthy - and any other member voting for a 50bp cut or for Bank Rate on hold would be a huge surprise. * Click for our full preview: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Bo_E_Preview_May25_cdd10a1afe.pdf. * Expect macro news flow and cross-market moves to dominate between now and the BoE decision, with little of note on the UK calendar in that period. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BoE Meeting SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) May-25 4.200 -25.9 Jun-25 4.064 -39.5 Aug-25 3.861 -59.9 Sep-25 3.721 -73.9 Nov-25 3.560 -89.9 Dec-25 3.510 -94.9
May 07, 2025 06:51A dovish pivot from the MPC is possible, but the market is already partially pricing this.
May 07, 2025 05:44