All signal, no noise

All signal, no noise

All signal, no noise

Latest insights

April data is likely "stale" but still relevant for assessing the fallout from US trade policy

May-12 17:22

The Central Bank of Mexico's board will gather Thursday to decide the next move in monetary policy.

May-12 15:04

We look ahead to this month's print and also look at the key part of the BOE's MPR with respect to labour market data.

May-12 14:15

United States and China reach agreement on 90-day pause in trade war.

May-12 13:39

MNI looks at what to expect from the RBA's new monetary policy department.

May-12 07:33

MNI discusses the rapid growth of China's main EV manufacturing province.

May-12 03:47

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FI Market Analysis

A weekly wrap of some of the key themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region.

May 09, 2025 05:50

Norges Bank held rates at 4.50% as unanimously expected.

May 08, 2025 01:51

The Riksbank held rates at 2.25% as unanimously expected, and introduced a very slight dovish tilt to its guidance.

May 08, 2025 01:45

Services Y/Y Exceeds Highest Analyst Estimate

May 07, 2025 01:51

FX Market Analysis

Norges Bank held rates at 4.50% as unanimously expected.

May 08, 2025 01:51

The Riksbank held rates at 2.25% as unanimously expected, and introduced a very slight dovish tilt to its guidance.

May 08, 2025 01:45

GBP STIRs are little changed this morning, looking through the previously covered Chinese policy easing announcement and reports pointing to the U.S. and UK nearing a trade accord. * SONIA futures flat to +1.5. * BoE-dated OIS is within 1bp of yesterday's closing levels, showing 95bp of cuts through year-end. A reminder that ~88.5bp of cuts were priced through year-end early yesterday after over 100bp of easing was priced over the same horizon last week. * The next 25bp cut is still fully discounted come the end of tomorrow's decision. * An outcome other than a 25bp cut would be surprising but there will be a number of things to watch: any changes to the guidance and the inflation/growth forecast changes, the vote split and the introduction of new scenarios. * For the guidance we expect "restrictive" and "careful" to remain but we question whether "gradual" will be removed and talk through the rationale for this potential change. * On the vote split, consensus expects 8-1 but neither Dhingra nor Mann dissenting for a 50bp cut would be a huge surprise. Taylor or Ramsden are plausible possible dissenters that would be more noteworthy - and any other member voting for a 50bp cut or for Bank Rate on hold would be a huge surprise. * Click for our full preview: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Bo_E_Preview_May25_cdd10a1afe.pdf. * Expect macro news flow and cross-market moves to dominate between now and the BoE decision, with little of note on the UK calendar in that period. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BoE Meeting SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) May-25 4.200 -25.9 Jun-25 4.064 -39.5 Aug-25 3.861 -59.9 Sep-25 3.721 -73.9 Nov-25 3.560 -89.9 Dec-25 3.510 -94.9

May 07, 2025 06:51

A dovish pivot from the MPC is possible, but the market is already partially pricing this.

May 07, 2025 05:44