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Local Analysts on CPI [2/2]

CANADA
  • National: CPI ex food, energy & mortgage interest costs has been running at 2.1%, the middle of the target range. We are confident that inflation will fall below 3% this summer, supported by a continued moderation in the goods component. In our view, the decline in corporate profits and investment over the past two quarters suggests that the current strength in the labour market will prove transitory and that wage pressures will ease as the economy weakens.
  • RBC: We continue to expect that slowing consumer spending will further ease price pressures ahead, weakening the economic backdrop while keeping the BoC on the sideline until the end of 2023.
  • TD: Inflation continues to cool from its peak pace last year but with the core measures just below 5% Y/Y, they still have a way to go before they are comfortably within the 1-3% target range. There was nothing in the report that would move the BoC off of its pause on interest rate moves. Unlike the Fed, domestic inflation trends mean the BoC can ride out the current volatility in financial markets driven by stresses in the banking sector internationally.
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