Laden VLCC’s have been consistently higher than the ballast ones since September 2022, indicating an overall tightness in VLCC tanker supply according to Vortexa.

• VLCC’s have been pushed onto lengthier voyages as China seeks crude from places like the US Gulf and Persian Gulf. Bloomberg also reported on a cargo from Norway’s Johan Sverdrup today – the first in 3-months.
• Longer voyage patterns emerging as a consequence of EU sanctions have driven the Aframax and Suezmax employment in Russian crude trade to record highs - this has pushed VLCC’s onto routes traditionally employed by smaller vessel classes.
• Trading activities for May loadings appear low towards China amidst oil price volatility and upon renewed fears of a financial turmoil according to Vortexa meaning VLCC fixing may slow in the short term.
• Stronger refinery runs are expected in China later in the year, which combined with strong Russian flows on the water (if sustained) should help to keep VLCC utilization propped up this year.
• Braemar forecast only 23 newbuild VLCC’s hitting the market this year – the lowest since 2015, which will also add to market tightness.
• VLCC rates have reached over $100,000 per day because of higher utilization for the vessel class.

source: Vortexa