Free Trial

Macro Developments Since Dec FOMC Meeting: Labor [1/2]

US
  • After November’s CPI report hit on day one of the two-day FOMC meeting, payrolls offered the first major release with broader strong details except for surprisingly weak average hourly earnings growth.
  • Actual payrolls growth was broadly in line with expectations after revisions, continuing to run far hotter with a 3-month average of 247k than the ~100k that would allow for population changes as cited by Chair Powell late last year.
  • What’s more, a roaring back of employment in the separate, more volatile household survey saw the unemployment rate surprisingly falling to joint multi-decade low at 3.47% vs consensus for no change at 3.7%.
  • This was all the more impressive after a larger than expected increase in participation on the month, and across both prime and non-prime age groups.
  • However, both total and prime participation rates remain off post-pandemic highs seen in the summer, notably so in the case of prime age, and likely require further increases to more seriously allay Fed concerns of labor not returning to the workforce, including early retirees.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.