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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
- Released far more recently and well into the FOMC blackout, the Employment Cost Index data showed a trend of stabilization rather than further moderation that could begin to worry the FOMC.
- Specifically, the ECI increased slightly faster than expected in Q1 at 1.16% Q/Q non-annualized (cons 1.1) after an also upward revised 1.10% Q/Q (initial 0.97%) in Q4. Wages & salaries saw similar relative strength with 1.16% Q/Q after an upward revised 1.17%, with marginally more of an uptick in its private subcomponent at 1.21% Q/Q after 1.16% Q/Q.
- In annualized terms, the 4.7% for total ECI is down from 5.5% in 1H22 but importantly unchanged from 2H22 whilst private wages & salaries actually accelerated to 4.9% annualized vs 4.7% 2H22 av.
- This rates have recently shown no sign of further moderation, in contrast to the more pronounced easing in monthly AHE data from payrolls, and in turn are stabilizing at growth rates that require unusually elevated productivity growth to be consistent with the inflation target.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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