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Mann speech due at 9:30GMT

BOE
  • The UK highlight today will be a speech by Catherine Mann at the Resolution Foundation entitled "The results of rising rates: Expectations, lags and the transmission of monetary policy."
  • The speech is due to be published on the BOE website here and the event including the Q&A will be livestreamed on YouTube here.
  • One of the sub-questions that Mann is due to cover is "If a slower transmission means a longer period of above target inflation, does this affect inflation expectations?" There has been much focus on the speed of the transmission mechanism and inflation expectations from the wider MPC recently, and even though Mann is still seen as the most hawkish member (despite dropping down to voting for a 50bp hike in February) her views on this topic and others will still be closely watched by the market.
  • Markets currently look for 24bp in March, a cumulative 44bp by May and a peak cumulative 66bp by August. We see two-way risks to this pricing (and in turn to gilts and GBP FX) from Mann's speech today.
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