ITALY DATA: Manufacturing PMI Highest Since Mar '23

Mar-01 08:52

The February Italian manufacturing PMI came in below consensus expectations at 48.7 (49.1 cons, 48.5 prior), in contrast to Spain earlier today. This was nonetheless the highest reading since March 2023 (though the index has remained below 50 since then).


Red Sea disruptions were again noted, but seemingly to a lesser extent than in the Spanish survey.


Key notes from the release:

  • "New business placed at Italian manufacturers fell moderately in February"..."companies blamed the unfavourable geopolitical climate and weak demand conditions for the latest downturn".
  • "Geopolitical issues also contributed to falling new export orders".
  • As in January: "Confidence was linked to new client acquisitions and the expectation that the economic and geopolitical climate will improve over the coming year".
  • "Shorter delivery times for purchased inputs were reported by firms in February. Vendor performance improved only fractionally, however, as firms continued to report delays due to the disruption in the Rea Sea".
  • "The latest data showed input prices falling again"..."a drop in raw material prices led suppliers to revise price lists in February. In response, companies also reduced charges, albeit only marginally".

Historical bullets

BUNDS: Bund tests immediate resistance

Jan-31 08:50
  • Bund now test that next area of interest noted at 135.50, so far printed a 135.55 high.
  • All a continuation following the lower French inflation, while further upside traction will open to 135.99 next.
  • Some positioning, squaring ahead of the set of regional German CPIs, with Hesse, Bavaria, Brandenburg, Saxony, Baden and NRW all due at the top of the hour.

CNY: RTRS Sources Flag State-Back Bank Defence Of Yuan

Jan-31 08:35

RTRS sources have noted that “China's state banks were heavy sellers of dollars on Wednesday, steadying the yuan as it came under pressure in currency trade. One of the people said the selling was "very forceful" to defend USD/CNY around 7.1820 in the onshore spot market.”

UK: Times-Hunt: Little Room For Tax Cuts In Budget

Jan-31 08:34

Steven Swinford at The Times posts on X: "[Chancellor] Jeremy Hunt warned Cabinet that tax cuts in Spring budget may be smaller than expected. ‘We are not likely to have as much room for tax cuts as we had in the Autumn,’ he said. He blamed ‘major structural weakness’ of low productivity Treasury projections suggest there is £14bn of headroom compared to £35bn at time of Autumn Statement. Ministers say political imperative is to go big but are concerned the fiscal constraints may not allow."

  • The Times report comes after the IMF warned the UK gov't about engaging in significant tax cuts in the budget. The IMF "advised the UK against further tax cuts", as it launched its latest assessment of the world economy. The organisation claimed that supporting public services and fixed investment would mean greater gov't spending than was indicated in fiscal plans at present.
  • There is pressure on Hunt and PM Rishi Sunak to engage in significant tax cuts.This is not only in an effort to boost the Conservatives' poor opinion polling numbers, but also on a broader ideological point for MPs from the centre-right party, who opposed the tax burden on individuals sitting around the highest levels in the post-war era.