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Market curve too high is based on curve used in forecasts NOT curve now

BOE
  • Bailey: "Our best view of what the rate should be, given the circumstances and the evidence we have to date is nearer to the constant rate curve than the market curve is to the constant rate curve currently."
  • Ramsden: "The MPC's projections were conditioned on the path of Bank Rate implied by financial markets in the seven working days leading up to 25 October, that path is rising to a peak of 5.25% in 2023 Q3. So all the forecast numbers based on the market path, that's where the 5.25% comes from. We then just report, and this goes to my point that markets remain febrile, even these pretty liquid markets, that in the run-up to the November decision yesterday, the peak had come down to 4.75%. But the conditioning path is 5.25%."
  • Broadbent confirms that the statement on rates being too high is based on the rates used at the time of the forecast - NOT on rates now.
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