TECHNOLOGY: Media Reports That Ubisoft Is Exploring Tencent JV
UBIFP Unrated
Reports lean more towards a JV with Tencent as opposed to a buyout which makes sense given the Guillemot brothers seem intent on retaining control and previous reports noted that various strategic options were under consideration. It is difficult to assess the credit implication without knowing the final structure though this would lower the likelihood of a full takeover. Reminder that Ubisoft 27s feature a CoC put at par though this excludes the ‘existing concert’ (i.e. the Guillemot Brothers).
- BBG news reports that Tencent and Guillemot family considering a venture involving Ubisoft assets to enhance its valuation and support Tencent's international gaming expansion.
- Discussions ongoing on what assets to include in a new entity and at what valuation though no decisions have been finalized.
- Broader options, including buyout, under consideration to stabilize Ubisoft after stock performance decline. Strategic advisors appointed to explore alternatives.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 6184.00 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 1: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6129.75 @ 07:21 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 6097.76 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6043.00/6004.31 Low Nov 26 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5970.25 Low Nov 21
- SUP 4: 5921.00 Low Nov 19
The S&P E-Minis contract remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of the trend would open 6145.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 6097.76 the 20-day EMA.
FOREX: NZD Outperforms, USD & NOK Lag
BBDXY still below Friday’s highs & closing levels, with a modest move lower in U.S. yields noted.
- All of the major USD pairs sit within 0.3% of Friday’s closing levels.
- NZD outperforms G10 FX peers.
- NZD/USD a little over 25 pips off Friday’s ’24 low, last 0.5781.
- That is despite domestic monthly inflation data being consistent with further RBNZ easing & NZ PM Luxon highlighting the very challenging economic conditions in place at the moment.
- Weakness in Chinese equities & retail sales data outwound some of AUD’s early outperformance.
- Questions surrounding the durability of any Chinese economic recovery remain evident following the latest round of economic data.
- USD/JPY little changed around 153.65, lower Tsy yields, an uptick in e-minis and the downtick in Chinese stocks offset when it comes to that pair.
- NOK the G10 underperformer (excl. USD) given the move lower in European equity index futures and crude oil.
- Looking ahead, December flash PMIs headline the global data calendar on Monday. We will also see Eurozone Q3 labour cost data
- There will be a raft of ECB speak (recent comments from Lagarde have simply reiterated last week’s post-meeting comments) and comments from BoC Governor Macklem.
- The Fed remains in pre-meeting blackout. Click for our preview of that event: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2024_c2bc263e41.pdf
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- PRICE: $2654.9 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: $2643.6 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
Gold has pulled back from its recent highs. Trend signals remain bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance at $2721.4, the Nov 25 high, has been pierced and this represents a positive development. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at $2790.1, the Oct 31 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. First key support is $2605.3, the Nov 26 low.
