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Mixed At The Sydney Open, Subdued NY Session Ahead Of Wednesday’s FOMC

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ACGBs (YM flat & XM +2.0) are mixed following a NY session that saw modest market movements. US tsys showed a twist-flattening bias, with the 2-year yield up 2bps to 5.05% and the 10-year rate down 3bps to 4.30%. Earlier, the 10-year yield came close to making a new cycle high above 4.36% but the failure to hold over that level saw short covering provide some support.

  • On the economic data front, the US NAHB housing market index printed weaker than expected, falling to a five-month low of 45, with higher mortgage rates as a contributing factor.
  • Oil prices rose to a fresh 10-month high as supply fundamentals remain tight.
  • Cash ACGBs have opened 1-3bp lower, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -12bp.
  • Swap rates are 1bp higher to 2bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip is little changed, with pricing flat to -2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across meetings, with terminal rate expectations at 4.24%.
  • Today the local calendar will show the RBA Minutes for the September meeting. The RBA left rates on hold in September while maintaining its tightening bias. The statement was little changed from August. The minutes will be watched for any alteration in tone.
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ACGBs (YM flat & XM +2.0) are mixed following a NY session that saw modest market movements. US tsys showed a twist-flattening bias, with the 2-year yield up 2bps to 5.05% and the 10-year rate down 3bps to 4.30%. Earlier, the 10-year yield came close to making a new cycle high above 4.36% but the failure to hold over that level saw short covering provide some support.

  • On the economic data front, the US NAHB housing market index printed weaker than expected, falling to a five-month low of 45, with higher mortgage rates as a contributing factor.
  • Oil prices rose to a fresh 10-month high as supply fundamentals remain tight.
  • Cash ACGBs have opened 1-3bp lower, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -12bp.
  • Swap rates are 1bp higher to 2bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip is little changed, with pricing flat to -2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer across meetings, with terminal rate expectations at 4.24%.
  • Today the local calendar will show the RBA Minutes for the September meeting. The RBA left rates on hold in September while maintaining its tightening bias. The statement was little changed from August. The minutes will be watched for any alteration in tone.