STIR: BoE Pricing Steady Around 55bp Cuts Through Dec

GBP STIRs have pulled away from dovish session extremes given the adjustment in Fed pricing after the U.S. data. * SONIA futures flat to +5.5, with the strip bull flattening. * SFIZ5 & Z6 pierced respective May 9 & May 8 high before a retrace. Bulls will now look to target wider May highs in those contracts. * BoE-dated OIS hasn't been able to push consistently beyond 55bp of cuts through year-end, with markets probably needing to see greater deterioration in the labour market/a swifter than expected moderation in inflation to be comfortable with discounting a meaningful deviation from the once per quarter cutting cycle that has become familiar in recent months. * Comments from BoE dovish dissenter Taylor are due tomorrow. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BoE Meeting SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) Aug-25 4.005 -21.3 Sep-25 3.931 -28.6 Nov-25 3.758 -46.0 Dec-25 3.665 -55.2 Feb-26 3.531 -68.7 Mar-26 3.495 -72.2

STIR: Hawkish Move In Fed Pricing After Data

Firmer-than-expected JOLTs job data and a still elevated prices paid component in the ISM manufacturing survey applies hawkish pressure, countering the dovish input from Fed Chair Powell ahead of the data and outweighing a soft employment sub-component within the ISM survey. * Powell's focus on the Fed's mandate, as opposed to President Trump's critique, could be a supplementary factor. * 5bp of cuts priced into FOMC-dated OIS for this month, 28bp through September, 45bp through October and 64.5bp through year-end. Contracts are 1-3 less dovish vs. pre-data levels. * December pricing has retraced back within the range witnessed over the prior 3 sessions. * Implied terminal rate pricing on the SOFR futures strip sits at 3.11%, after printing at ~3.00% during the London morning (SFRZ6 hit the highest level seen since early May).

MNI US Payrolls Preview: Softer Demand Meets Supply Constraint

Rates markets look for a next Fed cut in September whilst President Trump continues to call for significant rate cuts

MNI Gilt Week Ahead - 30 June 2025

We look at market implications of the welfare reform vote, appearances from Bailey and Taylor and the week's auctions.