MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/GBP Within Range of YTD Low

Price Signal Summary – EUR/GBP Within Range of YTD Low

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and recent short-term gains appear to be a correction. Price has recently cleared a key short-term support at 3960.75, Mar 2 low to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since Feb 2. The Eurostoxx 50 futures outlook remains bearish following recent weakness and the contract is trading lower today. Recent short-term gains were considered corrective. The break of the 4000.00 handle signals scope for weakness towards 3865.00, the Jan 4 low.
• GBPUSD has traded higher today. Price has pierced resistance at 1.2204, the Mar 14 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls and signal scope for a climb towards 1.2269, the Feb 14 high and 1.2296, a Fibonacci retracement. USDJPY conditions remain bearish and the pair is trading lower today. 131.31, 61.8% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally, has been cleared. The clear breach of this level strengthens bearish conditions and sets the scene for weakness towards 129.81, the Feb 10 low. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish despite the recent recovery - a shallow correction so far. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. The break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and price has breached key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low.
• A strong rally in Gold Friday saw the yellow metal trade to fresh YTD high of $1989.4. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since late September 2022. Today’s rally has resulted in a break of the psychological $2000.0 handle. WTI futures remain vulnerable and the contract is trading lower this morning. Last Wednesday’s sell-off resulted in the break of key support at $70.86, the Dec 9 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and reinforces current bearish conditions.
• Bund futures traded higher Friday, breaching 138.00 and the contract has started this week on firm note. The near-term outlook remains bullish. The 140.00 psychological handle has been pierced, a clear break would open 140.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Gilt futures remain above 103.12, the Mar 15 low. For now, the outlook is bullish and today’s resumption of gains signals scope for a climb towards the 108.00 handle. The contract trades higher Friday to reinforce bullish conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 1.0836 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0775 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0760 High Mar 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0674 @ 05:35 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 1.0516 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0454 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 2022 low
• SUP 4: 1.0394 Low Dec 1

EURUSD remains below resistance at 1.0760, the Mar 15 high. Last week's price action resulted in a brief test below key short-term support at 1.0525, the Mar 8 low. A clear break of this level is required to reinstate a bearish theme that would open 1.0484, the Jan 6 low and 1.0454, a trendline support drawn from the Sep 28 2022 low. 1.0760 marks the current key short-term resistance - clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pierces Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 1.2296 76.4% retracement of the Jan 23 - Mar 8 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2269 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 1.2230 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2179 @ 06:18 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 1.2073/2011/1908 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 1.1908 Low Mar 10 1.1893 200-dma
• SUP 3: 1.1892 200-dma
• SUP 4: 1.1804 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD has traded higher today. Price has pierced resistance at 1.2204, the Mar 14 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls and signal scope for a climb towards 1.2269, the Feb 14 high and 1.2296, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 1.2011, the Mar 15 low. A move below this support would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8903 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 2: 0.8890 High Mar 10
• RES 1: 0.8844 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 0.8756 @ 06:35 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 4: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP remains vulnerable near-term and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. The cross has breached support at 0.8755, the Feb 28 low and recently pierced 0.8722, the Jan 19 low. Clearance of 0.8722 would leave the 0.8700 handle exposed. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8844, the Mar 15 high. A breach of this hurdle is required to ease bearish pressure and allow for a move towards 0.8903, a trendline resistance.

USDJPY TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 137.91 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 1: 132.65/134.38 Intraday high / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.74@ 08:44 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 130.54 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 129.81 Low Feb 10
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

USDJPY conditions remain bearish and the pair is trading lower today. 131.31, 61.8% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally, has been cleared. The clear breach of this level strengthens bearish conditions and sets the scene for weakness towards 129.81, the Feb 10 low. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 134.38 and a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 144.96 High Mar 15
• RES 3: 143.06 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.75 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 142.21 High Mar 17
• PRICE: 139.30 @ 08:46 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 138.83 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 139.06 Low Jan 20
• SUP 3: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and a key support

EURJPY is trading lower today and the cross continues to appear vulnerable. Short-term gains are considered corrective and last week’s move lower signals scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle. Today’s resumption of the downleg opens the 138.00 handle with the short-term bear trigger at 139.13 breached, the Mar 16 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 142.21, the Feb 17 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Gains Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6783/84 50-day EMA / High Mar 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6748 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 0.6689 @ 07:58 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish despite the recent recovery - a shallow correction so far. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. The break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and price has breached key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3814/3862 High Mar 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3714 @ 08:02 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 1.3652 Low Mar 14
• SUP 2: 1.3568 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

The recent move lower in USDCAD appears to be a correction and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains strengthened a bullish theme. Price has cleared the Dec 16 high of 1.3705 and traded above 1.3800. Scope is seen for gains towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 high. Initial support is seen at 1.3652, the Mar 14 low. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Bull Run Extends

• RES 4: 141.06 High Dec 14 (cont)
• RES 3: 140.73 High Jan 19 (cont)
• RES 2: 140.47 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Mar 9 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 140.10 Intraday high
• PRICE: 139.65 @ 07:55 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 137.10 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 135.73 Low Mar 16136.56
• SUP 3: 134.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 133.33 Low Mar 15

Bund futures traded higher Friday, breaching 138.00 and the contract has started this week on firm note. The near-term outlook remains bullish. The 140.00 psychological handle has been pierced, a clear break would open 140.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch this week lies at the 20-day EMA. A reversal lower and a break of this support is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial support is 137.10, today’s low.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Breaches The 120.000 Handle

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 2022 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 121.290 High Dec 2 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 121.090 High Dec 8 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 120.600 Intraday high
• PRICE: 120.440 @ 08:17 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 118.60 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 117.820 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 116.954 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 116.547 50.0% retracement of the Mar 6 - 17 rally

Bobl futures traded higher Friday and are firmer again today. Price has cleared 120.00. The outlook remains bullish following last week’s volatile price action. A continuation higher would pave the way for gains towards 121.090, the Dec 8 2022 high on the continuation chart. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 116.954.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 107.400 High Oct 28 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 2 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 106.955 Intraday high
• PRICE: 106.835 @ 08:21 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 105.760 Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: 105.575 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 105.335 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 105.166 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - 17 rally

Schatz futures traded higher Friday and the contract has rallied today. The outlook remains bullish in a volatile environment. A continuation higher would open the 107.00 handle next. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 105.335. A break of this average would highlight a bearish development. Initial support lies at 105.760, the Mar 17 low.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Bullish Outlook And Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 108.92 High Nov 24 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 107.78 High Feb 2 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 1: 107.33 Intraday high
• PRICE: 107.15 @ 08:30 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 104.12 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 103.82 38.2% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 3: 103.12 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 102.67 20-day EMA

Gilt futures remain above 103.12, the Mar 15 low. For now, the outlook is bullish and today’s resumption of gains signals scope for a climb towards the 108.00 handle. The contract trades higher Friday to reinforce bullish conditions. On the downside, firm support is seen at the 20-day EMA, where a break would strengthen any developing bearish threat. The average intersects at 102.67.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 118.97 Low Nov 30 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 118.56 High Jan 19 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 2: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 1: 117.16 Intraday high
• PRICE: 116.56 @ 08:05 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 114.25/113.02 Low Feb 15 / High Mar 9 and a gap low
• SUP 2: 111.79 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 110.79 Low Mar 7
• SUP 4: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and the bear trigger

BTP futures traded higher Friday to extend the reversal from 110.25, the Mar 2 low. The contract has also traded higher today. The short-term outlook remains bullish following recent gains. A continuation higher would open 118.18, the Jan 19 high on the continuation chart and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 113.02, the Mar 9 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Short-term pullbacks would be considered corrective - for now.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 4268.00 High Mar 6 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4193.20 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 4129.90 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 4109.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 6 - 15 bear leg
• PRICE: 3918.00 @ 08:20 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 3914.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3865.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 3800.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3750.00 Low Dec 30

The Eurostoxx 50 futures outlook remains bearish following recent weakness and the contract is trading lower today. Recent short-term gains were considered corrective. The break of the 4000.00 handle signals scope for weakness towards 3865.00, the Jan 4 low and further out towards the 3800.00 handle. Initial resistance is seen at 4129.90, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 1: 4026.76 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3903.25 @ 06:52 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: 3839.25 Low Mar 13
• SUP 2: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 3: 3778.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3724.86 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 bull cycle

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and recent short-term gains appear to be a correction. Price has recently cleared a key short-term support at 3960.75, Mar 2 low to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that has been in place since Feb 2. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 3822.00 next, the Dec 22 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 4026.76, the 50-day EMA. A break of this EMA would alter the picture.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: $88.78 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $84.00/86.75 - High Mar 9 / 7 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $80.39 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $75.92/78.84 - High Mar 17 / Low Feb 6
• PRICE: $70..57 @ 07:07 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: $70.00 - Round number support
• SUP 2: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $64.62 - 1.382 proj of the Nov - Dec - Jan price swing

Brent futures remain vulnerable following last week’s impulsive bearish wave and the contract is trading lower today. Price has breached a key support at $76.04, the Dec 12 low and a key medium term chart point. The break confirms a resumption of the medium-term bear trend and paves the way for weakness towards $69.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is $75.92, Friday’s high. Gains would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (J3) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $82.89 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $78.06/80.94 - High Mar 9 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 2: $74.27 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $69.64/72.56 - High Mar 17 / 15
• PRICE: $64.28 @ 08:38 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: $64.12 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: $60.44 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $58.02 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing

WTI futures remain vulnerable and the contract is trading lower this morning. Last Wednesday’s sell-off resulted in the break of key support at $70.86, the Dec 9 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and reinforces current bearish conditions. Note too that price has also cleared the psychological $70.00 handle. Attention is on $62.43, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at $69.64, Monday’s high.

GOLD TECHS: Trades Above The Psychological $2000.0 Handle

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2009.7 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1998.8 @ 08:50 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: $1959.7 - High Feb 2 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $1877.9 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1860.0 - 50-day EMA

A strong rally in Gold Friday saw the yellow metal trade to fresh YTD high of $1989.4. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since late September 2022. Today’s rally has resulted in a break of the psychological $2000.0 handle and this further strengthens the current uptrend. It opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, Friday’s low of $1918.3 marks firm support.

SILVER TECHS: Clears Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $23.520 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 3: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $22.829 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg
• RES 1: $22.717 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $22.633 @ 08:54 GMT Mar 20
• SUP 1: $21.474 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $19.232 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg

Silver remains firm having reversed sharply higher from $19.904, the Mar 10 low. The metal has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $21.870. The clear breach of this EMA strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards $22.829, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, $21.474 marks initial firm support, the Mar 16 low.