MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: No Rate Cut From The PBoC, This Time

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• KREMLIN SPOKESPERSON: PUTIN IS "WILLING TO NEGOTIATE" (CNN)
• KYIV SAYS ATTACK-DATE COMMENTS WERE SARCASM (BBG)
• BIDEN TEAM SEES LIMITED ABILITY TO PRESS CHINA IN TRADE TALKS (BBG)
• LAGARDE: ECB WILL ACT AT ‘RIGHT TIME’ WITH GRADUAL APPROACH (BBG)
• PBOC LEAVES MLF RATE UNCH., INJECTS NET CNY100BN VIA THAT FACILITY

Fig. 1: ICE-Bank Of America MOVE Index

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

UK

INFLATION: The average UK petrol price has surpassed 148p for the first time, new figures have revealed. According to the AA, petrol has jumped to 148.02p per litre on Sunday - rising above the previous record high of 147.72p on 21 November last year. Pump costs for diesel have piled yet more misery on motorists and businesses owners as they increase to a new record high of 151.57p per litre. (Sky)

POLITICS: Scotland Yard will reveal the number of people fined at each "partygate" event being investigated and explain why the decision was taken, civil servants have been told. A question and answer sheet sent to government officials caught up in the inquiry, a copy of which has been seen by The Telegraph, says the civil service will not be told who gets fined. Government staff facing allegations of attending lockdown-breaking parties are told to talk to their supervisors if they need time off to deal with what is happening. There had been confusion about whether the public would know the outcome of the Metropolitan Police's "partygate" investigation, given that individuals who receive fines will not be named. (Telegraph)

EUROPE

ECB: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde repeated that officials won’t rush to remove stimulus in the euro region as she sought to highlight the limits of their powers at a time of volatile prices. “We need to be open about what we can and cannot do as a central bank,” she told European Parliament lawmakers on Monday. “For example, our monetary policy cannot fill pipelines with gas, clear backlogs at ports or train more lorry drivers.” (BBG)

ITALY: Italy’s vaccination mandate for about 8.8 million workers over 50 will kick off on Tuesday. Workers in the private and public sector will be required to show their so-called super green pass to prove their vaccination, or face fines for up to 1,500 euros ($1,695). Until Monday, proof of a negative test was enough to enter workplaces. More than 91% of people over 50 are partly vaccinated, leaving more than 1 million of the 50-59 age group without any vaccination. (BBG)

GREECE/RATINGS: The revision of the Outlook on Greece’s ratings to Positive reflected strong economic growth and a narrowing fiscal deficit that supports a faster-than-expected fall in public-sector debt, amid rising but still historically low borrowing costs (the 10-year bond yield between 2015 and 2019 was around 6.25% on average), Fitch Ratings says in a new Sovereign Dashboard. We previously highlighted that gross financing needs (GFNs) for the Greek sovereign will peak in 2023 and stay below 15% of GDP. Our revised projections now point to lower GFNs in the next four years (cumulatively 4.5% of GDP). This revision also reflects repayments of outstanding IMF loans and prepayments of 2022 and 2023 instalments of the Greek Loan Facility, amounting to 3.8% of forecast GDP. Public debt rose sharply due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and the debt ratio is the third highest among Fitch-rated sovereigns and around 3.5x the ‘BB’ median. But mitigating factors support public debt sustainability. Greece’s liquid asset buffer is substantial; the concessional nature of the majority of Greek sovereign debt means that debt-servicing costs are low and amortisation schedules are manageable; and the average maturity of Greek debt is among the longest of any sovereign, at 20.5 years. This will limit the impact of rising bond yields. (Fitch)

SWEDEN: Sweden's Health Agency recommended on Monday that people aged 80 or above should receive a second booster shot of COVID-19 vaccine, the fourth jab in total, to ward off waning immunity amid the rampant spread of the Omicron variant. (RTRS)

U.S.

CORONAVIRUS: Washington will lift its mask mandate in certain settings beginning March 1, Mayor Muriel Bowser said. The nation’s capital will no longer require face coverings in restaurants, bars, gyms and similar indoor venues. However, masks still will be required in schools, health-care facilities and on public transit. (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: California plans to keep its mask mandate for schools in place for now, but officials said they may soon announce a timeline for ending the requirement. The most-populous state will reassess the mandate on Feb. 28 and could announce then when it will be lifted. “Masking requirements were never put in place to be there forever,” Mark Ghaly, California’s secretary of health and human services, said at a briefing. “It’s not a question of if - - it’s a question of when.” (BBG)

EQUITIES: Federal investigators are probing the business of block trading on Wall Street, examining whether bankers may have improperly tipped hedge-fund clients in advance of large share sales, according to people familiar with the situation. The Securities and Exchange Commission has sent subpoenas to firms including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as well as several hedge funds, asking for trading records and information about the investors' communications with bankers, some of the people said. The Justice Department also is investigating the matter, some of the people said. (WSJ)

OTHER

GLOBAL TRADE: The U.S. is continuing conversations with China despite Beijing’s failures to abide by a trade agreement reached during the Trump administration, but that process could soon come to an end, according to people familiar with the matter. Biden administration officials, running out of patience after months of talks on shortfalls in the so-called phase-one trade agreement, are trying to assess Beijing’s willingness to make any further concessions but consider that unlikely, the people said. The White House plans, however, to let the talks play out before the Biden team considers next steps on how to respond. (BBG)

GLOBAL TRADE: The upgraded free trade agreement, signed in Jan. 2021 between China and New Zealand, will take effect April 7, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce says in a statement. Two nations agree to push forward bilateral trade ties to “a higher level” in 2022. (BBG)

BOJ: Governor Haruhiko Kuroda says the Bank of Japan’s fixed-rate bond-buying on Monday was successful in his first public remarks about the operation that was conducted for the first time since 2018 to keep yields low. Global bond yields probably helped push up Japan’s yields higher, Kuroda says in a response to questions by a lawmaker. (BBG)

BOJ: MNI INSIGHT: BOJ Expects Stagnant Q1 GDP On Spending, Exports

• Bank of Japan officials are concerned stagnant first quarter growth will carry into private spending in the second quarter and temper a rebound as curbs ease once the spread of the Omicron variant likely wanes, MNI understands - on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

JAPAN: MNI: Govt Official Warns Of Impact of High Prices on Sentiment

• High prices caused by surging crude oil prices will have an adverse impact on consumer sentiment in the coming months, a senior official at the Cabinet Office said on Tuesday. Japanese consumer spending has been clearly falling since mid-January on the back of the quasi-emergency measures to combat the spread of Omicron and a slower pace of vaccinations, high-frequency data showed. “If the high costs will not be transferred to retail prices, corporate profits will be squeezed,” the official told reporters, adding it is still uncertain how private consumption will evolve for the rest of the first quarter - on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

JAPAN: Japan’s government won’t require business travelers to submit a detailed itinerary of their trip for screening prior to arrival, Nikkei reports without attribution. Requirement previously in place won’t be reinstated after border controls for foreigners ease from March. Follows criticism from companies of excessive paperwork. (BBG)

RBA: The Reserve Bank of Australia says better-than-expected progress has been made on its goals for employment and inflation, which is why the board decided to end monetary support through its bond buying program this month. But the minutes of its February 1 board meeting reaffirmed its members are yet to be convinced that the pick-up in inflation will be sustained and are prepared to be patient before raising the cash rate. "There were uncertainties about how persistent the pick-up in inflation would be as supply-side problems were resolved," the minutes released on Tuesday say. "Wages growth also remained modest and it was likely to be some time before aggregate wages growth would be at a rate consistent with inflation being sustainably at target." Even so, the minutes note the unemployment rate was at its lowest level since 2008 and underlying inflation was in the middle of the two to three per cent target range for the first time since 2014. "In these circumstances, members agreed that it was the right time to draw the bond purchase program to a close," the minutes say. (7News Australia)

BOK: Bank of Korea officials past and present, presidential advisers and global representatives are among potential successors to central bank Governor Lee Ju-yeol, whose impending departure is fueling speculation over a replacement at a time of elevated inflation. Lee’s successor will inherit rapidly normalizing monetary policy after two years of extraordinary stimulus to prop up a pandemic-hit economy. Having been cut as low as 0.5%, the policy rate has now returned to its pre-pandemic level of 1.25%. It could move even higher in response to consumer-price growth, although surging virus cases and global uncertainties cloud the outlook. The appointment will come at a politically sensitive moment, with South Koreans heading to the polls on March 9 to elect a new leader. The president-elect will likely want a say in who helms the central bank. Current President Moon Jae-in hasn’t commented on the issue yet. Lee’s term ends on March 31. (BBG)

ASIA: Asian governments need to remove travel restrictions such as pre-flight Covid tests and quarantine to help the aviation industry get back on its feet, said Subhas Menon, director general of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. This year “should mark the start of the end of many of the closed borders in Asia Pacific,” Menon said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on the first day of the Singapore Airshow. While domestic travel in the region is probably already back to pre-pandemic levels, it could take until around 2024 for international travel to recover, he said. (BBG)

CANADA: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he's invoking the Emergencies Act for the first time in Canada's history to give the federal government extra powers to handle ongoing blockades and protests against pandemic restrictions. "It is now clear that there are serious challenges to law enforcement's ability to effectively enforce the law," Trudeau told a news conference Monday afternoon. Trudeau said the measures will be geographically targeted and "reasonable and proportionate to the threats they are meant to address." The unprecedented deployment of the Emergencies Act gives police more tools to restore order in places where public assemblies constitute illegal and dangerous activities, such as blockades and occupations, he said. Trudeau said the act also will enable the RCMP to enforce municipal bylaws and provincial offences where required. (CBC)

MEXICO: Mexican deputy central bank Governor Jonathan Heath expects the board to raise its key interest rate by a quarter-point next month, assuming the U.S. Federal Reserve delivers an increase of that size and there are no other surprises. Going forward, the Fed’s hikes are likely to be the Banco de Mexico’s “floor,” Heath said in a video interview on Monday with Bloomberg News. “When the Fed increases we’ve always increased at the same pace or more, but never less, so I don’t really see the case for it to be different now,” he said. “What would make us try to go faster than the Fed is if we don’t see inflation peaking in March or April, maybe a little bit later -- that’s the type of data point I would be looking at.” (BBG)

BRAZIL: Recent performance of Brazilian assets signal that investors are less worried about a possible government transition after the presidential elections in October, central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto said in an interview with Globonews. Without mentioning any names, Campos Neto says that recent performance probably reflects signs that a possible candidate advocating for more extreme economic measures is now moving toward the center. (BBG)

BRAZIL: Brazil's Supreme Court annulled on Monday a previous court decision that would have required state-run oil company Petrobras to pay billions of dollar in a labor dispute involving additional wages for employees. (RTRS)

RUSSIA: President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Ukrainians to fly the country's flags from buildings and sing the national anthem in unison on Feb. 16, a date that some Western media have cited as a possible start of a Russian invasion. Ukrainian officials stressed that Zelenskiy was not predicting an attack on that date, but responding with skepticism to foreign media reports. Several Western media organisations have quoted U.S. and other officials citing the date as when Russian forces would be ready for an attack. "They tell us Feb. 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it a day of unity," Zelenskiy said in a video address to the nation. Zelenskiy has long said that - while he believes Russia is threatening his country - the likelihood of an imminent attack has been overstated by Ukraine's Western allies, responding to Moscow's efforts to intimidate Ukraine and sow panic. (RTRS)

RUSSIA: Russia has moved some long-range artillery and rocket launchers into firing position, threatening Ukraine, according to a U.S. official. Some Russian units have left their assembly areas — the bumper-to-bumper formations seen in satellite photos — and are beginning to move into "attack positions," according to the official. This movement marks a change since Sunday, when some of the units had left the assembly areas but had not yet taken what could be viewed as attack positions. (CBS)

RUSSIA: The United States said Monday it has seen no "tangible sign of de-escalation" at the Russian border with Ukraine. "It is a distinct possibility, perhaps more real than ever before, that Russia may decide to proceed with military action, with new Russian forces continuing to arrive at the Ukrainian border," State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters. "An invasion, as we have said, could begin at any time," he added. (AFP)

RUSSIA: U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will depart for a trip tomorrow to visit Belgium, Lithuania and Poland, the Pentagon said on Monday. (RTRS)

RUSSIA: Russian President Vladimir Putin is adding more military force and capability near Ukraine’s border with each passing day, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby has said. “This is a military that, that continues to grow stronger, continues to grow more ready. They’re exercising, so we believe that he has a lot of capabilities and options available to him should he want to use military force,” Kirby told MSNBC in an interview on Monday. (Al Jazeera)

RUSSIA: The U.S. is closing its embassy in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and relocating operations 340 miles west to Lviv near the Polish border, as allies warn that an attack by Russian forces on Ukraine may be imminent. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the relocation as a temporary move to protect embassy staff. “These prudent precautions in no way undermine our support for or our commitment to Ukraine,” Mr. Blinken said Monday. “Our commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering.” (WSJ)

RUSSIA: Senators struggling to negotiate a deal on a Russia sanctions package acknowledged Monday they are considering instead a non-binding resolution expressing support for Ukraine. Democrats have sent Republicans another offer on the package, which lawmakers have hoped would deter Russia from an invasion of Ukraine. But the Senate plans to leave Washington for a week-long recess at the end of this week, giving lawmakers just a few days to strike a deal that has eluded them for weeks. “So, either we’re going to have the sanctions package that somehow can be, with consent, brought to the floor,” said Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat. “Or we should express the Senate’s position vis-a-vis the support of Ukraine at a minimum before we leave.” (BBG)

RUSSIA: There has been a subtle change of tone from Joe Biden and Boris Johnson about the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has gone from “highly likely” to “there may be a diplomatic solution” - or from “almost all hope lost” to “chink of hope”. So from where does that hope emanate? Largely, I am told, from noises out of Ukraine that its government is moving towards a public statement that although it retains the right to join the Nato western defence alliance, it will commit to not consider applying for at least 10 years. The US president and UK prime minister are keen to encourage, through diplomatic channels, such a statement from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. (ITV)

RUSSIA: Britain’s prime minister said Europe is “on the edge of a precipice” — but added, “there is still time for President Putin to step back.” France’s foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, told French television that “all elements” were in place for a strong Russian offensive, but “nothing shows today” that Putin has decided to launch one. (AP)

RUSSIA: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin is "willing to negotiate," adding the Ukraine crisis was only one part of Russia's larger security concerns. “First of all, President Putin has always been demanding negotiations and diplomacy," Peskov told CNN's Frederik Pleitgen late Monday. "And actually, he initiated the issue of guarantees of security for the Russian Federation. And Ukraine is just a part of the problem, it’s a part of the bigger problem of security guarantees for Russia and of course President Putin is willing to negotiate," he said." Earlier in the day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Putin he saw a "chance" for diplomatic dialogue with the West over Russia's security concerns, saying he recommended such efforts continue. (CNN)

RUSSIA: Russia’s ambassador to the EU has said Moscow would be within its rights to launch a “counterattack” if it felt it needed to protect Russian citizens living in eastern Ukraine. The comments in an interview with the Guardian will do little to calm fears of a major Russian assault on Ukraine, given one of the key scenarios suggested by western intelligence was Russia launching a “false-flag” operation to provide a pretext for invasion. “We will not invade Ukraine unless we are provoked to do that,” said Vladimir Chizhov, who has represented Russia in Brussels since 2005. “If the Ukrainians launch an attack against Russia, you shouldn’t be surprised if we counterattack. Or, if they start blatantly killing Russian citizens anywhere – Donbas or wherever.” (Guardian)

RUSSIA: Ukrainian law enforcement agencies do not see the likelihood that a large-scale invasion from Russia could start in the coming days, on February 16 and 17, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov has said. "We are fully aware of what is happening today on the territory of our country, we are aware of the risks that exist on the territory of our country. But the situation is absolutely under control, moreover, we do not see today that a large-scale offensive by Russia may take place either on [February] 16 or 17. We do not see this," Danilov told journalists following a meeting with representatives of the Verkhovna Rada on Monday. (Interfax)

RUSSIA: The U.S. is considering offering Ukraine up to $1 billion in sovereign loan guarantees to help Ukraine’s economy amid pressures from the Russian military build-up, a senior Biden administration official said on Monday. (RTRS)

RUSSIA: The State Department has escalated its warning to U.S. citizens in Belarus, where thousands of Russian troops have massed for menacing military exercises -- now urging them to leave the country "immediately." In addition, the State Department is urging Americans to "depart immediately" from Transnistria, which is part of Moldova -- the landlocked country on Ukraine's southwestern border. The urgent warning doesn't apply to the entire country, but just to Transnistria, an unrecognized breakaway region where Russia has stationed troops against the Moldovan government's will as "peacekeepers," similar to Russian troops in two disputed regions of Georgia, the small former Soviet republic. (ABC News)

RUSSIA: Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin and NATO Sec. Gen. Jens Stoltenberg “discussed recent diplomatic engagements with Russia and the need for Russia to de-escalate,” according to a Pentagon readout of their call. They “also exchanged views on the importance of maintaining strong deterrence and defense and emphasized that Russia’s actions will ultimately achieve the opposite of their intended effect – a stronger and more unified NATO Alliance, postured to deter and defend against aggression along NATO’s Eastern flank” (BBG)

IRAN: Iran on Monday said an agreement to revive a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers was "at hand", but insisted that sanctions be "truly lifted" through ongoing talks in Vienna. After months of on-off negotiations, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell added to hopes of a renewed deal. "I strongly believe an agreement is in sight," he said on Twitter, after a call with Iran's foreign minister. "The moment has come to make an ultimate effort and reach a compromise," Borrell said, in his dual capacity as coordinator of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the deal agreed between Iran and world powers in 2015. But Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, receiving Irish foreign and defence minister Simon Coveney on Monday, said that "sanctions must be truly lifted" in the ongoing negotiations to revive the deal in the Austrian capital. "The rights of the Iranian people must be respected," he added. (AFP)

MIDDLE EAST: Afghanistan will be forced to reconsider its policy towards the United States unless Washington reverses a decision to freeze part of the country's assets as compensation for victims of the 9/11 attacks, the Taliban said Monday. "The 9/11 attacks had nothing to do with Afghanistan," said Monday's statement, signed by deputy spokesman Inamullah Samangani. "Any misappropriation of the property of the Afghan people under the pretext of this incident is a clear violation of the agreement reached with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan," the statement added, using the Taliban's name for the country. "If the United States does not deviate from its position and continues its provocative actions, the Islamic Emirate will also be forced to reconsider its policy towards the country." (Newsweek)

IRON ORE: Iron ore futures tumbled by more than 10% in Singapore as China intensified its campaign to rein in prices for the steelmaking material after big gains in recent months. Futures on the Singapore Commodity Exchange plunged as much as 10.6% to $132.75 a ton, falling for a third day. Authorities in Beijing have stepped up actions to stop prices overheating amid renewed efforts to keep inflation in check. In the latest warning, officials have summoned iron ore trading companies to meet Tuesday to “ensure the smooth operation” of the market, state media Futures Daily reported, citing a document it said was circulating among market participants. (BBG)

IRON ORE: Vale SA is seeking initial approvals to expand two iron ore mines in southeastern Brazil as the world’s No. 2 producer of the steel-making ingredient continues its recovery from a tailings dam disaster three years ago. (BBG)

OIL: The largest U.S. shale basin's output will surge to a record in March, according to a monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Monday. (RTRS)

CHINA

PBOC: The People’s Bank of China is likely to keep a looser policy to support growth with cutting rates or banks’ reserve ratios remaining possible, the China Securities Journal said citing unidentified analysts. For this week, the central bank's task may be to prevent excessive liquidity and make smaller injections given less maturing MLFs, smaller government debt issuances and tax remissions, the newspaper said. Short-term money market rates may continue to drop as more funds flow back to banks after the Lunar New Year holiday ended, the journal said. (MNI)

PROPERTY: China’s real estate market has improved as the government introduced a slew of favorable policies including easier financing, the China Securities Journal reported. New loans to the property sector increased CNY600 billion in January, the newspaper citing data from unidentified banks. Personal mortgage loans will accelerate this year, and lending to better-positioned developers will rise to help stabilize the property market, the newspaper said citing Lian Ping, the chief economist of Zhixin Investment Research Institute. Real estate investment may return to growth of 1% to 2% this year, the newspaper said citing analysts. (MNI)

SOES: China’s central government-owned enterprises made CNY185.27 billion in combined profits in January, up 11.3% from a year ago, with revenues gaining 12.4% to CNY3 trillion, the Economic Daily reported. The output of coal and sales of refined petroleum products and steel all rose, the newspaper said. Last year, the government tasked central SOEs with helping support economic growth and ensuring revenues and profits grow at rates faster than the GDP, said the daily. (MNI)

POLICY: China will strengthen oversight of the online ride-hailing industry, according to a joint notice issued by eight departments including the Ministry of Transport. Local regulators are required to strictly control entrance to the industry, urging ride-hailing companies not to allow drivers and vehicles lacking the required licenses to operate on their platforms. Ride-hailing platforms that have incurred serious violations — such as endangering network and data security, violating users’ personal information privacy and disrupting social order — and that refuse to rectify their actions could be ordered to suspend operation or remove their apps from app stores, the notice said. (Caixin Global)

CORONAVIRUS: China continues to battle Covid flareups as Manzhouli, a city of 300,000 people in Inner Mongolia bordering Russia, said it would enter lockdown after five people tested positive for Covid. Suzhou, a city near Shanghai in eastern China, also found 12 Covid infections, mostly at the city’s industrial park. A wafer factory run by Taiwan’s United Microelectronics Corp. had to suspend production in the city after employees tested positive. Meanwhile, the southwestern border city of Baise started to lift lockdown restrictions Tuesday after its omicron-led cluster outbreak appeared to come under control. The city of 3.6 million residents near Vietnam entered lockdown last week. China reported 47 Covid infections overall on Tuesday, with 28 of them in the northeastern coastal city of Huludao. (BBG)

OVERNIGHT DATA

JAPAN Q4, P GDP +1.3% Q/Q; MEDIAN +1.5%; Q3 -0.7%
JAPAN Q4, P GDP ANNUALIZED +5.4% Q/Q; MEDIAN +6.0%; Q3 -2.7%
JAPAN Q4, P GDP NOMINAL +0.5% Q/Q; MEDIAN +0.8%; Q3 -1.0%
JAPAN Q4, P GDP DEFLATOR -1.3% Y/Y; MEDIAN -1.3%; Q3 -1.2%
JAPAN Q4, P GDP PRIVATE CONSUMPTION +2.7% Q/Q; MEDIAN +2.3%; Q3 -0.9%
JAPAN Q4, P GDP BUSINESS SPENDING +0.4% Q/Q; MEDIAN +0.5%; Q3 -2.4%
JAPAN Q4, P INVENTORY CONTRIBUTION % GDP -0.1%; MEDIAN 0.0%; Q3 +0.1%
JAPAN Q4, P NET EXPORTS CONTRIBUTION % GDP +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.3%; Q3 +0.1%

JAPAN DEC, F INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION +2.7% Y/Y; FLASH +2.7%
JAPAN DEC, F INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -1.0% M/M; FLASH -1.0%

JAPAN DEC CAPACITY UTILISATION -0.4% M/M; NOV +8.0%

AUSTRALIA ANZ-ROY MORGAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 103.2; PREV. 99.9

Consumer confidence increased 3.3% last week, despite retail petrol prices reaching record highs. Inflation expectations increased 0.2ppt and settled at a recent high of 5%. Although confidence rose above the neutral level of 100, it is still well below its long-run average, so we can’t say higher inflation isn’t having an impact. The passing of the Omicron peak along with the news that international borders will reopen to vaccinated tourists later this month no doubt helped lift sentiment despite rising petrol prices. Confidence increased in every state, with gains of 4.1% in NSW, 1.1% in Victoria, 6.5% in Queensland, 1.2% in SA and 5.3% in WA. (ANZ)

NEW ZEALAND JAN REINZ HOUSE SALES -28.6% Y/Y; DEC -29.4%

NEW ZEALAND DEC NET MIGRATION -539; NOV +130

SOUTH KOREA JAN EXPORT PRICE INDEX +22.3% Y/Y; DEC +23.3%
SOUTH KOREA JAN EXPORT PRICE INDEX +1.4% M/M; DEC -1.2%
SOUTH KOREA JAN IMPORT PRICE INDEX +30.1% Y/Y; DEC +29.6%
SOUTH KOREA JAN IMPORT PRICE INDEX +4.1% M/M; DEC -2.0%

CHINA MARKETS

PBOC NET INJECTED CNY90 BLN VIA OMOS TUES; MLF RATE FLAT

MNI (Beijing) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY300 billion via a 1-year medium-term lending facility and CNY10 billion via 7-day reverse repos with the rates unchanged at 2.85% and 2.10%, respectively, on Tuesday. The operation has led to a net injection of CNY90 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY200 billion MLF and CNY20 billion repos today, according to Wind Information.

• The operation aims to keep liquidity reasonable and ample, the PBOC said on its website.
• The 7-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) rose to 2.1000% at 09:24 am local time from the close of 1.9882% on Monday.
• The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index closed at 49 on Monday, compared with the close of 45 on Friday.

PBOC SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 6.3605 TUES VS 6.3664

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 6.3605 on Tuesday, compared with 6.3664 set on Monday.

MARKETS

UP TODAY (Times GMT/Local)

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
15/02/2022	0700/0700	***		UK	Labour Market Survey
15/02/2022	0800/0900	***		ES	HICP (f)
15/02/2022	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
15/02/2022	1000/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
15/02/2022	1000/1100	*		EU	employment
15/02/2022	1000/1100	***		EU	GDP (p)
15/02/2022	1000/1100	*		EU	trade balance
15/02/2022	1000/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
15/02/2022	1315/0815	**		CA	CMHC Housing Starts
15/02/2022	1330/0830	***		US	PPI
15/02/2022	1330/0830	**		US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/02/2022	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
15/02/2022	1400/0900	*		CA	Home Sales – CREA (Canadian real estate association)
15/02/2022	1630/1130	**		US	NY Fed Weekly Economic Index
15/02/2022	1915/1415			US	Senate Banking Committee votes on Federal Reserve nominees
15/02/2022	2100/1600	**		US	TICS