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MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Biden Takes the Helm

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • ECB IS CAPPING BOND YIELDS BUT DON'T CALL IT YIELD CURVE CONTROL (BBG)
  • ITALIAN PREMIER WINS CONFIDENCE VOTE, STILL SEEKS MAJORITY (BBG)
  • U.S. SAYS CHINA'S REPRESSION OF UIGHURS IS 'GENOCIDE' (NYT)
  • BIDEN'S INAUGURATION SPEECH TO STRESS UNITY AMID A NATIONAL CRISIS (CNBC)
  • EU AIMS TO EXTEND LOOSER STATE AID RULES TO HELP VIRUS-HIT FIRMS (RTRS)
  • CHINA LPR FIXINGS UNCHANGED, SHORT TERM LIQUIDITY INJECTIONS PICK UP

Fig. 1: Bloomberg/J.P.Morgan Asia Dollar Index (ADXY)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg


UK

CORONAVIRUS: The U.K. reported a further 1,610 new deaths from the coronavirus on Tuesday, the most reported in a single day. A further 33,355 cases were reported, lower than the seven-day rolling average of 44,997. The average number of new cases has been steadily falling since early January, although it remains significantly higher as a more infectious strain spreads through the country. There are now more than 4.26 million people who have received their first coronavirus vaccine dose. (BBG)

COORNAVIRUS: Ministers are increasingly concerned about the pace of the coronavirus vaccine rollout after a reduction in the supply of Pfizer-Biontech jabs. The number of people receiving their first dose on Monday fell for the third day in a row to 204,076 from a high of 324,000 on Friday. Pfizer said supplies of vaccine would be lower this month and next as it was upgrading its factory in Belgium before increasing production in March. A government source said that the supply had become "very constrained" with ministers concerned about meeting the target to vaccinate 15 million people in the four most vulnerable groups by mid-February. "It's going to be very, very tight," the source said. (The Times)

CORONAVIRUS: The public does not back a rapid easing of lockdown measures, ministers believe as they plan a cautious timetable for the lifting of restrictions. (Telegraph)

CORONAVIRUS: Council workers and nursery teachers have been offered Covid vaccinations ahead of the over-70s as the unequal supply of jabs appeared to be fuelling a free-for-all. (Telegraph)

BOE: MNI BRIEF: UK Job Losses Higher Than ONS Headline: BOE Haldane

  • Looking at administrative data, tax returns and other figures, a best guess is that about a million people have lost their jobs as a result of the Covid-19 crisis, an estimate well above the headline figures from the Office for National Statistics, Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane said Tuesday. The key for unemployment going forward was how far the economic recovery gets before the Treasury ends its job support schemes, which are currently scheduled to wind up in April, Haldane told a seminar at Oxford University. If GDP was within five percentage points of the pre-crisis level when the job schemes are terminated Haldane said that he anticipated no further job losses at that point - on MNI Main Wire and email now - for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

FISCAL: More than half a million freelancers excluded from state support could be handed a last-minute lifeline, as influential MPs put pressure on the Chancellor to include them in the final round of self-employed grants. (Telegraph)

BREXIT: A key U.K. government customs system has been overwhelmed within weeks of Brexit and threatens to trigger more disruption as freight traffic rebounds. Exporters say they are struggling to acquire transit documents, which allow goods to enter the European Union without delay, because of a shortage of agents with the authority to issue them. Agents need to put up a financial guarantee, often backed by a bank, to cover any taxes or duties on the goods being moved -- but they have almost all been committed. (BBG)

EUROPE

ECB: The European Central Bank is emulating its Asia-Pacific peers by controlling government borrowing costs, just in a uniquely European way. The ECB is buying bonds to limit the differences between yields for the strongest and weakest economies in the euro zone, according to officials familiar with the matter, with one person saying the central bank has specific ideas on what spreads are appropriate. An ECB spokesman declined to comment. Investors have long wondered whether the central bank has specific levels in mind when it tries to cap bond yields. The latest insight into its strategy sheds light on how policy makers are navigating euro-area complexities that make publicly targeting bond levels difficult. (BBG)

EU: EU competition regulators plan to extend looser state aid rules until the end of 2021 to help European companies hit by the coronavirus pandemic, including allowing EU governments to grant more funding, the European Commission said on Tuesday. The EU executive eased the rules in March last year to help the 27-country bloc protect jobs in sectors such as airlines, tourism, restaurants and entertainment, and support the economy. (RTRS)

GERMANY: Germany is to extend the current lockdown until mid-February, and to require people to wear FFP2 masks in shops and on public transport, with Angela Merkel warning of the "serious danger" posed by the new, more infectious variant of the coronavirus. Ms Merkel said there was "still time to contain the danger", but this required immediate action — otherwise the infection numbers will start to rise again. "It's hard what we are asking people to do again," she said after a video conference with the leaders of Germany's 16 regions. But it was necessary as a "precaution", she said. (FT)

ITALY: Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte scraped through a confidence vote in the Italian Senate Tuesday, giving him a chance to consolidate his hold on power in the days ahead. With the country in the grip of a surging pandemic and a brutal recession, senators backed the premier with 156 votes in favor and 140 against. There were 16 abstentions and nine senators didn't attend. He'll need 161 votes in future for the outright majority that is required to pass certain key legislation. The premier may add further support on Wednesday when a group of senators have indicated they will be ready to give him their backing, according to people familiar with those talks. (BBG)

SWEDEN: Swedish residential property prices rose 0.2% on the month in December, according to the Nasdaq OMX Valueguard-KTH Housing Index, HOX Sweden. HOX Sweden advanced 1.7% in the 3 months through December and rose 11.5% y/y. Adjusted for seasonal effects, the index rose 1.3% m/m in December. (BBG)

U.S.

FISCAL: Janet Yellen, Biden's pick to lead the Treasury Department, pushed back against two key concerns from Republican senators at her confirmation hearing on Tuesday: the country's debt and the incoming administration's plans to eventually raise taxes. Yellen — who's expected to win confirmation — said spending big now will prevent the U.S. from having to dig out of a deeper hole later. She also said the Biden administration's priority right now is coronavirus relief, not raising taxes. (Axios)

FISCAL: Janet Yellen, President-elect Joe Biden's choice for Treasury secretary, testified Tuesday that the U.S. could afford a higher corporate tax rate if it coordinates with other economies around the globe. (CNBC)

FISCAL/U.S. TSYS: MNI BRIEF: Yellen Says Open to Exploring 50-Year Bond Issuance

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Nominee Janet Yellen said Tuesday she would be open to considering issuing a 50-year bond, a proposal that was explored and rejected under the current administration. "I would be pleased to take a look at this issue (of) what the market would be like for bonds of that maturity," Yellen said in testimony at a Senate confirmation hearing - on MNI Main Wire and email now - for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

FISCAL: The $900 billion Covid relief package passed last month gives states the power to forgive unemployment benefits paid in error during the pandemic. But some fear states will opt not to implement those worker protections. (CNBC)

FISCAL: New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo proposed raising taxes on the wealthy to a combined level of 14.7%, which would be the highest state-and-local tax rate in the nation. The tax increase would raise $1.5 billion for the state, Cuomo said Tuesday in an address unveiling his 2022 budget proposal. (CNBC)

CORONAVIRUS: The US continues to experience easing trends in cases and hospitalisations, with trends for both metrics dropping to their lowest levels in weeks. States reported an additional 144,047 infections, according to Tuesday data from Covid Tracking Project, which marked the smallest daily increase in cases since December 25. Over the past week, the US has averaged 197,930 cases a day. That is the first time the rate has been below 200,000 — and the lowest it has been — since figures reported on January 1 that were up to and including December 31. About a week ago, the US averaged a record 244,707 cases a day. (FT)

CORONAVIRUS: Abbott Laboratories' BinaxNOW, a 15-minute test for Covid-19, may miss nearly two-thirds of infections in those without symptoms, according to a federal study that suggests repeat testing is needed to catch people when they are most contagious. (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: Rochelle Walensky, the incoming director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said she will start her new job with a big to-do list: helping states fix Covid-19 vaccination programs and persuading exhausted Americans to wear masks and take other precautions. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Dr. Walensky said the agency will try to help people overcome doubts about Covid-19 vaccines and she vowed to increase public trust in the CDC. (WSJ)

POLITICS: President-elect Joe Biden will on Wednesday deliver an inauguration speech centered on unity as the United States faces one of its most chaotic transfers of power in the modern era. Biden, who departed for Washington on Tuesday afternoon, will speak about the need to bring the country together on the heels of a violent riot on Capitol Hill and amid extreme partisanship in Congress, according to the president-elect's advisors. His speech will also come in the wake of an outgoing president whose refusal to attend the inauguration ceremony was heralded by his successor as a victory for security. (CNBC)

POLITICS: President Donald Trump in a pre-recorded farewell address touted his record on the economy and foreign policy, while glossing over the Capitol riot that consumed the final weeks of his presidency. He also failed to mention his successor, Joe Biden, by name. Biden will be inaugurated as the nation's 46th president Wednesday. Trump's nearly 20-minute speech, which was taped Monday, framed his departure from the White House as the natural conclusion of a job well done, rather than as the consequence of his election loss to Biden. (CNBC)

POLITICS: Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said the mob that stormed the Capitol Jan. 6 was "fed lies" and "provoked by the president" and others into a violent and deadly rampage. McConnell's words on the Senate floor Tuesday were some of the strongest he's used to tie President Donald Trump directly to the attack that disrupted the certification of the Electoral College votes that elected Joe Biden as the next president. (BBG)

POLITICS: President Trump has talked in recent days with associates about forming a new political party, according to people familiar with the matter, an effort to exert continued influence after he leaves the White House. Mr. Trump discussed the matter with several aides and other people close to him last week, the people said. The president said he would want to call the new party the "Patriot Party," the people said. (Dow Jones)

MARKETS: A Fox reporter tweeted the following on Tuesday: "Wall Street sources briefed on Gary Gensler's agenda as new SEC chief say he will focus on broad corporate governance issues such as disclosure of campaign contribution by public cos AND specific issues such as abuses surrounding SPACs."

EQUITIES: The incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is considering creating a White House position focused on competition policy and issues relating to antitrust, two sources familiar with internal deliberations said. The idea remains under consideration and the Biden White House may not ultimately make the move, one of the sources said. (RTRS)

OTHER

U.S./CHINA: The State Department declared on Tuesday that the Chinese government is committing genocide and crimes against humanity through its wide-scale repression of Uighurs and other predominantly Muslim ethnic minorities in its northwestern region of Xinjiang, including in its use of internment camps and forced sterilization. (New York Times)

U.S./CHINA: MNI BRIEF: US to Combat 'Illegal' China Trade Practices-Yellen

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Nominee Janet Yellen said Tuesday the Biden administration would fight what she called "China's abusive, unfair and illegal practices" on trade. "China is undercutting American companies by dumping products, erecting trade barriers and giving illegal subsidies to corporations. It has been stealing intellectual property and engaging in practices that give it an unfair technological advantage," Yellen told the Senate Finance Committee - on MNI Main Wire and email now - for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

MNI EXCLUSIVE: China Eyes US Talks, May Waive Tariffs:Advisors

  • China is better prepared for trade discussions with the U.S. after making crucial concessions in the recent pact with the EU and could show goodwill by exempting more American products from tariffs in the hope of reciprocity and dialogue, policy advisors told MNI - on MNI Main Wire and email now - for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

GEOPOLITICS: President-elect Joe Biden's nominee to be secretary of state, Antony Blinken, pledged on Tuesday that he will work to revitalize damaged American diplomacy and build a united front to counter the challenges posed by Russia, China and Iran. (RTRS)

GEOPOLITICS: Outgoing President Donald Trump has signed an executive order aimed at thwarting foreign use of cloud computing products for malicious cyber operations against the United States, the White House said on Tuesday, Trump's last full day in office. The order, first reported by Reuters, gives the Commerce Department authority to write rules to bar transactions with foreigners in cloud computing products or services, if a foreigner uses them for cyber attacks. (RTRS)

CORONAVIRUS: The administration of President-elect Joe Biden plans to join the Covax vaccine initiative that U.S. President Donald Trump declined to take part in, Antony Blinken, nominee to be secretary of state, told lawmakers Tuesday at his confirmation hearing. "The combination of rejoining, taking part in Covax and looking at how we can help make sure the vaccine is equitably distributed is something we're going to take on," Blinken said. He added that he sees global risks rising as the pandemic continues to spread. (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: Moderna said Tuesday that it is investigating reported allergic reactions from one batch of its COVID-19 vaccine after California recommended pausing vaccinations. State epidemiologist Erica Pan recommended on Sunday that health care providers pause administering doses from lot 041L20A while the state investigates a "higher-than-usual number of possible allergic reactions" that were reported with doses that were administered at a community vaccination clinic. (The Hill)

CORONAVIRUS: A cheap, off-patent antiparasitic drug has been shown to have a significant effect in reducing mortality in patients with moderate to severe Covid-19. Researchers have hailed the preliminary finding as a pivotal step towards broadening the arsenal of drugs used against the disease. The University of Liverpool's Andrew Hill and others carried out a meta-analytical breakdown of 18 studies that found that ivermectin was associated with reduced inflammation and a faster elimination of Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.

CORONAVIRUS: Countries in North and South America must ramp up public health measures intended to slow the spread of Covid-19, like social distancing and mask wearing, as the virus surges out of control in the region, the Pan American Health Organization's top health official said. ″Our region, and our world, is failing to control coronavirus. In far too many places public policies are not congruent with the severity of the situation," Carissa Etienne, director of PAHO and World Health Organization regional director for the Americas, said in a statement. (CNBC)

JAPAN: The Japanese government is considering extending the period of a program offering subsidies to companies keeping employment amid the resurgence of coronavirus, Nikkei reports, without attribution. Program will be extended to run through the end of the following month the state of emergency is lifted. The program will then be phased out, but those severely hit by the outbreak will continue to be eligible. (BBG)

AUSTRALIA/CHINA: Despite the trade tensions with China and the massive tariff imposed on barley exports, there are some good signs for grain growers on international markets. West Australian grain handler CBH Group has sent a shipment of malt barley to Mexico, which is a first for the Australian grains industry. The shipment of 35,000 tonnes of malting barley, used to make beer, was loaded at the port of Albany in WA and sent to Mexico. (ABC)

NORTH KOREA: President-elect Joe Biden's nominee for secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said on Tuesday the incoming administration planned a full review of the U.S. approach to North Korea to look at ways to increase pressure on the country to come to the negotiating table over its nuclear weapons. At the same time, the United States would also look at providing humanitarian help to North Korea if needed, Blinken said. (RTRS)

TAIWAN: Taiwan approved $5.9b investments in China in 2020, 41.5% higher y/y, according to website statement from Ministry of Economic Affairs. That's the first growth in five years, and the biggest growth since 2010, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the ministry's data. (BBG)

SOUTH KOREA: South Korea revises FX prudential regulations, particularly targeted on non-bank financial institutions such as securities companies and insurers, in a move to improve FX risk management, according to a joint statement by finance ministry, Bank of Korea and financial regulators. (BBG)

SOUTH KOREA: South Korea's former National Security Advisor Chung Eui-yong replaces Kang Kyung-wha, who has served as the foreign minister since President Moon Jae-in took office in May 2017, timed with Bidet inauguration. Hwang Hee, a ruling party lawmaker, was named minister of culture, sports and tourism and Kwon Chil-seung, another ruling party lawmaker, minister of SMEs and Startup as Park Young-sun resigned to run for the Seoul mayoral by-election in April. (Maeil)

CANADA: Pfizer Inc told Canada on Tuesday it will receive no coronavirus vaccines next week, officials said, an unexpected development that promises more pain for provinces already complaining about a shortage of supplies. Pfizer said last week it would slow production in late January and early February because of changes in manufacturing processes, resulting in a supply cut for Canada and European Union nations. (RTRS)

TURKEY: U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's choice for secretary of state on Tuesday accused NATO member Turkey of not acting like an ally and said Washington would review if further sanctions are required on Ankara over its acquisition of a Russian air defense system. Last month, Washington imposed long-anticipated sanctions on Turkey's defense industry over its acquisition of S-400 missile defense systems from Moscow, in a move Turkey called a "grave mistake." "The idea that a strategic - so-called strategic - partner of ours would actually be in line with one of our biggest strategic competitors in Russia is not acceptable," Antony Blinken, Biden's choice for chief U.S. diplomat, told lawmakers. (RTRS)

MEXICO: Mexico will seek investment from Ford after the company said it's ceasing manufacturing operations in Brazil, Economy Minister Tatiana Clouthier said at an event on a program to restart economic activity. (BBG)

BRAZIL: Brazil's Economy ministry officials are coming to grips with the idea that vulnerable Brazilians will need more financial aid this year as Covid-19 cases spike across the country again, potentially hurting government plans to impose budget austerity. Additional public spending to fight the virus is increasingly inevitable as it becomes apparent that Latin America's largest economy is suffering from a second, more severe wave of the pandemic, according to three government officials familiar with the matter. In addition, they fear that President Jair Bolsonaro, whose popularity dropped immediately after a program of cash handouts expired in December, could soon ramp up pressure on the economy ministry to find stimulus alternatives to tame stimulus discontent, the people said, asking for anonymity because the discussion isn't public. (BBG)

BRAZIL: Brazil's Fiocruz biomedical institute said on Tuesday it would not be able to deliver finished doses of a coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca until March due to a delayed shipment of active ingredients from China. Initially, Fiocruz had estimated it would be able to deliver 1 million AstraZeneca doses by mid-February. (RTRS)

METALS: A new wave of Covid-19 cases in China's Hebei province triggered transport restrictions in the major steel-producing region. The lockdowns in Hebei include areas surrounding steel mills, limiting the ability to transport the metal to customers. China is the world's top steel producer and analysts say Hebei contributes over 20% of the country's total output. Coronavirus cases in Hebei have been rising since the start of the year, prompting the province to lock down its capital, Shijiazhuang, and at least two other areas in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus. (CNBC)

OIL: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada is "making sure" the incoming U.S. administration hears our views in support of the Keystone XL pipeline expansion. (Global News)

OIL: The Trump administration has exempted more oil refineries from biofuel-blending requirements, with a last-minute move set to draw the ire of ethanol and biodiesel producers. The EPA granted two refineries exemptions from 2019 quotas under the Renewable Fuel Standard, according to data posted online. The agency also approved a waiver from 2018 biofuel targets for one previously denied refinery. (BBG)

CHINA

CORONAVIRUS: Beijing imposed a lockdown of 1.7 million people in part of the Chinese capital as officials race to prevent a Covid-19 resurgence in the country's northern region from seeping into the city. Daxing district in southern Beijing, where its new airport is located, has been sealed off from the rest of the country after six infections were found there. The total number of cases in Beijing stands at 15, while over a thousand infections have been found nationwide since early January, mostly in China's vast rural northern provinces. (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: Beijing will monitor all people who have entered the city from overseas since December 10 2020, according to state media, as authorities tighten measures to contain an outbreak in the north of the country. The step is the latest in efforts to control a series of winter outbreaks of Covid-19 that are the largest the country has since early 2020. Authorities claim the infections are linked to overseas travellers and imported frozen food. (FT)

PBOC: MNI POLICY: PBOC Keeps Jan Loan Prime Rate Unchanged

  • China's central bank maintained its key loan rate unchanged Wednesday for the ninth month in succession as it flags a "policy normalization" stance amid historically high levels of national debt. The Loan Prime Rate, the benchmark to set companies' cost of borrowing, remains at 3.85% for a one-year maturity and at 4.65% for the five-year maturity. The move was in line with expectations as the PBOC held its Medium-Term Lending Facility rate at 2.95% on Jan. 15. The LPR is linked to the one-year MLF, which is viewed as being closer to market rates - on MNI Main Wire and email now - for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

PBOC: China's top decision makers have indicated a preference for prudent monetary policies this year while still supporting the recovery, the Securities Daily said in a commentary. China is likely to continue implementing pandemic relief policy tools such as debt deferment and credit loans for micro and small businesses, the newspaper wrote. The PBOC is likely to provide liquidity in accordance with the size and needs of different financial institutions and avoid any excessive injections, the commentary said. (MNI)

ECONOMY: The Chinese economy may grow more than 10% in Q1 before slowing to 9%, 6% and 5.5% in the following quarters, the China Securities Journal reported citing Liu Qiao, the dean of the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University. Consumption could rebound to 10% this year should the epidemic come under control, the newspaper said citing Wang Yiming, a former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council. Real estate investment may shrink under credit constraints, infrastructure investment may be limited to 5% growth by local government debts and a lack of profitable projects, although manufacturing investment could register 8%, Liu said. (MNI)

YUAN: MNI BRIEF: Yuan Likely To Return To 6.5-6.8 Against Dollar

  • The Chinese yuan is very likely to return to the level of 6.5-6.8 against the greenback this year with the recovery of the U.S. economy, YiCai.com reported citing Liang Ming, director of the Institute of International Trade, a research unit under the Ministry of Commerce - on MNI Main Wire and email now - for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

NPLS: China should open up the market for the disposal of surging non-performing loans as small businesses struggled during the pandemic, the Economic Information Daily reported citing Li Qian, a manager of Golden Credit Rating. Regulators should reduce requirements such as provisioning coverage ratios and give incentives to asset management companies to further accelerate the drive, the Daily reported citing Wen Bin, a researcher from China Minsheng Bank. (MNI)

FDI: Foreign direct investment into the Chinese mainland, in actual use, expanded 6.2 percent year on year to a record high of 999.98 billion yuan in 2020, the Ministry of Commerce said Wednesday. In US dollar terms, the inflow went up 4.5 percent year on year to US$144.37 billion. The country managed to emerge from COVID-19 and meet its target of stabilizing foreign investment in 2020, bucking the downward trend in global foreign investment, the ministry said. In 2020, China's foreign investment touched a record high, with its growth pace quickened and global share increased. (Shanghai Daily)

INFRASTRUCTURE: President Xi Jinping says China should step up efforts to further develop its high-speed rail network, official Xinhua reports. (BBG)

PROPERTY: Shanghai authorities plan to tighten rules on property purchase in the city in order to cool the local property market, National Business Daily reports, citing a municipal conference Wed. (BBG)

OVERNIGHT DATA

JAPAN DEC CONVENIENCE STORE SALES -4.0% Y/Y; NOV -2.2%

AUSTRALIA JAN WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 107.0; DEC 112.0
AUSTRALIA JAN WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -4.5% M/M; DEC +4.1%

A pull back in the Index was to be expected. Since the last survey in the second week of December we have seen domestic border closures; the emergence of Covid clusters in some states; and the sharp upswing in Covid cases overseas, notably the US and the UK. This result compares to the 15% fall that was registered over July and August last year as the nation was shocked by Victoria's severe second wave and associated hard lockdown. It still points to healthy Consumer Sentiment. At 107.0 optimists clearly outnumber pessimists while the Index is 14.6% above the level a year ago and 41.5% above the low in April. There may also be an element of statistical correction given that the Index had surged by 40% between August and December with the December print reaching its 10 year high. (Westpac)

CHINA MARKETS

PBOC NET INJECTS CNY278BN VIA OMOS WEDNESDAY

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY280 billion via 7-day reverse repos with the rate unchanged on Wednesday. This resulted in a net injection of CNY278 billion given the maturity of CNY2 billion reverse repos today, according to Wind Information.

  • The operation aims to offset the impact of the tax season and maintain the liquidity in the banking system at a reasonable and ample level, the PBOC said on its website.
  • The 7-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) decreased to 2.3296% at 09:28 am local time from 2.7000% at Tuesday's close.
  • The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index closed at 67 on Tuesday vs 56 on Monday. A higher index indicates increased market expectations for tighter liquidity.

PBOC SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 6.4836 WEDS VS 6.4883

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rates lightly higher at 6.4836 on Wednesday. This compares with the 6.4833 set on Tuesday.

MARKETS

SNAPSHOT: Biden Takes the Helm

Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session:

  • Nikkei 225 down 149.87 points at 28482.06
  • ASX 200 up 32.983 points at 6775.6
  • Shanghai Comp. up 0.286 points at 3566.667
  • JGB 10-Yr future up 10 ticks at 151.95, yield down 2.2bp at 0.035%
  • Aussie 10-Yr future up 1.5 ticks at 98.910, yield down 1.2bp at 1.083%
  • U.S. 10-Yr future down 0-01+ at 136-28+, yield up 0.34bp at 1.092%
  • WTI crude up $0.34 at $53.32, Gold up $9.87 at $1850.13
  • USD/JPY down 14 pips at 103.76
  • ECB IS CAPPING BOND YIELDS BUT DON'T CALL IT YIELD CURVE CONTROL (BBG)
  • ITALIAN PREMIER WINS CONFIDENCE VOTE, STILL SEEKS MAJORITY (BBG)
  • U.S. SAYS CHINA'S REPRESSION OF UIGHURS IS 'GENOCIDE' (NYT)
  • BIDEN'S INAUGURATION SPEECH TO STRESS UNITY AMID A NATIONAL CRISIS (CNBC)

BOND SUMMARY: Sedate Asia-Pac Trade

U.S. Tsys experienced relatively sedate Asia-Pac trade, with macro headline flow on the lighter side, leaving T-Notes to operate in a narrow 0-03+ range, last -0-02 at 136-28, while cash Tsys sit within 1.0bp of closing levels, biased ever so slightly cheaper on the day. Pockets of TY selling were seen, although it was a 10K block of the TYJ1 138.00/133.50 risk reversal, selling the calls to buy the puts that caught the eye (with that particular round of flow going against the broader mantra of recent regional block trades, albeit at a slightly longer maturity). Eurodollar futures trade +0.5 to -0.5 through the reds. Once again, pockets of selling caught the eye here, with EDH1, EDM1 & EDZ2 given at different times.

  • JGB futures ticked higher as the BoJ's 2-day meeting got underway, with little in the way of supportive headline flow seen, while the offer/cover ratios witnessed at the latest round of BoJ 1-10 Year Rinban ops weren't particularly supportive. Futures +9 last, a little shy of best levels of the day, while the 5- to 20-Year zone of the curve outperformed.
  • Aussie bonds generally benefitted from a solid showing at the first ACGB auction of calendar '21, although hedging surrounding the pricing of TCV's new Nov '25 benchmark line triggered some hedging related flows in YMH1 and pressure in that zone of the curve during the Sydney morning. YM -0.5, XM +1.0.

JGBS AUCTION: Japanese MOF sells Y3.0900tn 6-Month Bills:

The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells Y3.0900tn 6-Month Bills:
  • Average Yield -0.0982% (prev. -0.0886%)
  • Average Price 100.049 (prev. 100.044)
  • High Yield: -0.0962% (prev. -0.0866%)
  • Low Price 100.048 (prev. 100.043)
  • % Allotted At High Yield: 76.2882% (prev. 48.6755%)
  • Bid/Cover: 4.032x (prev. 4.060x)

BOJ: 1-10 Year Rinban Sizes Unchanged

The BoJ offers to buy a total of Y1.29tn of JGB's from the market, sizes unchanged from previous operations.

  • Y450bn worth of JGBs with 1-3 Years until maturity
  • Y420bn worth of JGBs with 3-5 Years until maturity
  • Y420bn worth of JGBs with 5-10 Years until maturity

AUSSIE BONDS: The AOFM sells A$1.8bn of 1.50% 21 June 2031 Bond, issue #TB157:

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) sells A$1.8bn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 Bond, issue #TB157:
  • Average Yield: 1.0937% (prev. 0.8498%)
  • High Yield: 1.0950% (prev. 0.8525%)
  • Bid/Cover: 4.8639x (prev. 4.7175x)
  • Amount allotted at highest accepted yield as percentage of amount bid at that yield 32.9% (prev. 10.6%)
  • bidders 40 (prev. 54), successful 14 (prev. 28), allocated in full 6 (prev. 17)

EQUITIES: Tech Leads The Way Higher

Positive risk sentiment has boosted Asia-Pac equity markets, further support provided by strong earnings from the US after market. US Tsy Sec nominee Yellen managed to engender some benign risk sentiment with her testimony that hinted at even more stimulus spending. However gains in China were capped as markets evaluated President-elect Biden's cabinet picks' stance on China, which appears more hard line than most expected.

  • In Asia the Nikkei 225 is the laggard, down around 0.8%, dragged lower by financials and real estate. The index has rallied almost 75% since March. Hong Kong led gains in the region for a second day amid a continued inflow of mainland Chinese funds.
  • US futures are mixed, Nasdaq futures outperforming after a strong set of earnings from Netflix that saw shares spike 11% in after-market trade, tech sectors have led gains in Asia-Pac indices.

OIL: Builds On Yesterday's Gains

Positive risk sentiment has seen oil rise in Asia-Pac trade; WTI last up $0.38 at $53.56, brent up $0.40 at $56.30. Oil has built on gains made during the session on Tuesday as USD ticks lower, with further supported offered by testimony from US Tsy Sec nominee Yellen that sparked hopes of sizable fiscal stimulus.

  • Upside was limited by forecasts from the IEA that predicted global oil demand will be negatively impacted as the pandemic forces national governments to impose lockdowns. The IEA trimmed forecasts by 300k bpd.

GOLD: Back Towards $1,850/oz

A downtick in the USD has supported bullion in Asia-Pac trade, with lower U.S. real yields also providing support since the start of Tuesday's NY session. Still spot hasn't moved outside of the recently established range, last dealing a little shy of the $1,850/oz mark, against a well-defined technical backdrop.

FOREX: USD Extends Losses After Yellen's Remarks

The greenback extended losses amid risk-on impetus generated by yesterday's testimony from U.S. Tsy Sec nominee Yellen, who backed U.S. Pres-elect Biden's stimulus plan and pushed back against any imminent tax hikes. A strong earnings report from Netflix released after U.S. hours lent further support to risk appetite. The DXY faltered through yesterday's worst levels, while G10 crosses were happy to hold tight ranges ahead of Joe Biden's inauguration as the new POTUS.

  • Firmer oil prices filtered through into commodity-tied FX space, supporting AUD, NOK & CAD against the U.S. dollar. The Aussie topped the G10 pile amid little in the way of local catalysts. AUD/JPY pushed higher for the second day in the row, but failed to test yesterday's high.
  • The PBOC fixed USD/CNY at CNY6.4836, around 47 pips lower than yesterday on greenback weakness, but 12 pips above sell side estimates. The central bank injected CNY278bn of liquidity, the second injection after a prolonged drain after year end. The LPR rates were left unchanged, in line with expectations.
  • South Korea said it will tighten FX monitoring of non-bank financial companies.
  • Coming up today we have inflation data from the UK, Canada & EZ, a monetary policy decision from the BoC and comments from Riksbank's Skingsley & BoE's Bailey.

FOREX OPTIONS: Expiries for Jan20 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

  • EUR/USD: $1.2185-90(E512mln), $1.2300(E966mln)
  • GBP/USD: $1.3700(Gbp387mln-GBP puts)
  • EUR/NOK: Nok10.35(E713mln)
  • AUD/USD: $0.7690-0.7700(A$1.0bln)
  • NZD/USD: $0.6900(N$913mln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.2500($900mln), C$1.2700-15($1.1bln-USD puts), C$1.3000($540mln)
  • USD/CNY: Cny6.50($1.6bln)
  • USD/MXN: Mxn19.70($500mln-USD puts), Mxn19.90($500mln-USD puts)

UP TODAY (Times GMT/Local)

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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