MNI Global Week Ahead May 3 – 7

Key Things to Watch:

• Tuesday, May 4 – Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
  • No change is expected to interest rates, yield targets or the bank's bond buying program after underwhelming inflation data last week.
  • The RBA does not expect to raise rates from the record low 0.10% until 2024 "at the earliest" and its current yield curve program targets bonds maturing in April 2024. After hinting at an early decision on the yield control program to send a signal to the markets, the RBA is now buying time and more recently said a decision can be made in July or August.

• Thursday, May 6 – Bank of England Rate Decision
  • No change is expected in rates or QE levels, staying at 0.1% and GBP895 billion.
  • There is an outside change the BOE may outline a framework for a potential move into negative rates, which it has been tasked to have in place by August.
  • The main thrust of the meet and the following press conference will likely be growth and inflation forecasts.

• Friday, May 7 – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
  • Employers are expected to have added 950,000 jobs in April, according to the Bloomberg consensus, higher than March's 916,000 gain.
  • Business restrictions were eased through April as more of the public became vaccinated, and weekly jobless claims dipped to pandemic lows through the Bureau of Labor Statistics' reference period.
• Job growth in leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and construction was particularly strong, according to anecdotal evidence from the Fed's Beige Book. But many employers struggled to hire workers hesitant to return to the workplace, which could put some downward pressure on overall job gains.