- G10 Markets
- Fixed Income
- Foreign Exchange
- Emerging Markets
- MNI Research
- Global Macro
- Political Risk
- About Us
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.LATEST FROM POLICY:
- G10 MarketsG10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.Launch MNI PodcastsFixed Income FI Market AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiEurozone/UK Bond Auction CalendarEurozone/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction Calendar US$ Credit Supply Pipeline Fixed Income Technical Analysis EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix Gilt Week Ahead
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.LATEST FROM DATA:
- MNI ResearchMNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.Global Macro Central Bank PreviewsCentral Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisInflation InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSOverviewGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction Calendar
- About Us
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.Free Access
US Treasury Auction Calendar
MNI POLICY: China 2020 Growth May Slow to 5.8%; Yuan at 7-7.2
BEIJING (MNI) - China's GDP is forecast to slow to 5.8% in 2020 following
6.1% growth this year, while the yuan is likely rangebound 7-7.2 against the
dollar next year, according to a report released on Wednesday by the National
Institution for Finance and Development, a policy research body under the
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Countercyclical measures, such as boosting infrastructure investment and
implementing a structural short-term monetary policy, won't have impact until
first quarter (Q1) 2020, according to the report.
Here are a few takeaways of a briefing by the institute introducing the
- Overall leverage ratio in the Chinese economy rose by 1.6 percentage
points to 251.1% in Q3, compared with 249.5% in Q2. Policymakers have to contend
with a higher ratio if it wants to remain certain economic growth.
- The government may increase leverage but needs to increase fiscal deficit
ratio, which will likely be reflected in the budget early next year. The central
bank needs to increase holding of government bonds under efficient regulations.
- The yuan may remain a strong momentum as overseas investors bought more
Chinese assets to take advantage of the positive and potentially widening
short-term interest rate spread between that of China and the U.S. The yuan may
become more stable as trade conflicts ease.
- Inflation fuelled by surging pork prices may hit 4% in November and
average 4% in Q1, constraining monetary policy.
- China is actively expanding regional trade agreements to support the economy.
- New debt default rose to CNY36.1 billion in Q3 due to increasing
bankruptcy reorg. It may rise further given companies' difficulties with
refinancing and slowing economic growth. The yield curve of bond market turned
flatter in Q3, indicating a higher downturn pressure.
- While local government special bond quotas for 2020 will be larger, this
category of debt isn't factored in deficit calculations, so it won't have any
impact on deficit ratio, which may still be 3% ceiling next year.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532 5998; email: email@example.com
To read the full story
Sign up now for free access to this content.
Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.
Why Subscribe to
MNI is the leading providerof intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.