US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Daily Brief

• RES 4: 117.720 High Dec 16
• RES 3: 117.470 High Dec 20
• RES 2: 117.218 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 116.730 High Dec 23
• PRICE: 116.570 @ 13:11 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 115.640 2.50 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 2: 115.458 2.618 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.233 2.764 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 152.000 Round number support

Bobl futures have recovered from recent lows and the contract is firmer today. Gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. This follows the sell-off in December. The extension lower signals scope for 115.458 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 116.730, the Dec 23 high. The 20-day EMA intersects at 117.218, where a break would signal scope for a stronger bounce.

• RES 4: 140.78 High Dec 15
• RES 3: 137.76 High Dec 19
• RES 2: 136.47 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 135.55 Intraday high
• PRICE: 135.05 @ 12:59 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 132.60 Low Jan 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 132.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 131.54 2.50 proj of the Dec 7 - Dec 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 131.08 2.618 proj of the Dec 7 - Dec 13 price swing

Bund futures recovered Monday and the contract has traded higher today. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the cross remains in a downtrend. Recent cycle lows confirmed an extension of the trend and this has maintained the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on the 132.00 handle next. On the upside, resistance to watch is seen at 136.47, the 20-day EMA.

• The 118th Congress begins today with a vote on the House floor to determine who becomes the next Speaker of the House of Representatives. With high levels of uncertainty surrounding support for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), the voting process is widely expected to a protracted affair and likely the most chaotic start to a Congress in recent history.
• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will today celebrate becoming the longest-serving Senate leader ever.
• New York Republican Representative-elect George Santos will take his seat in Congress today amid a political storm over accusations that he fabricated elements of his personal and professional life on the campaign trail.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a call with incoming Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang on Sunday.
• President Biden yesterday appeared to contradict remarks from his South Korean counterpart President Yoon Suk-yeol suggesting that the two countries were discussing joint exercises using US nuclear assets.
• Poll of the Day: The intrigue surrounding the vote for the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives has seen the odds of Rep Steve Scalise (R-LA) becoming the next Speaker increase significantly since Christmas day.