MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI Speaks to Former New York Fed Economist on Fed Outlook

Jan-02 17:02
  • MNI speaks to former New York Fed economist Gianluca Benigno on the 2025 Fed outlook -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

Historical bullets

SOUTH KOREA: YTN-Def Min Says Martial Law Remains In Place Until Pres. Lifts It

Dec-03 16:59

South Korean outlet YTN is reporting that according to the Ministry of National Defense, martial law will remain in place until the president lifts the measures. Below is an abridged transcript from YTN (full transcript here)

  • [Anchor] We're continuing with the breaking news. The National Assembly has passed a motion to lift martial law. They're demanding that the martial law declaration be invalidated. What is the Ministry of National Defense's position?
  • [Reporter] As you mentioned, the National Assembly has passed a motion to lift martial law, but martial law will remain in place. They say they will continue to maintain martial law until the president gives separate instructions. [...]
  • [Anchor] President Yoon Seok-yeol has declared martial law, and the National Assembly has passed a resolution demanding the lifting of martial law, but the president has not yet lifted the martial law declaration. So the military is currently taking over public security administration. There has been no official statement from the military authorities, right?
  • [Reporter] Yes. As I said earlier, martial law will continue to be maintained until the president gives separate instructions. 

 Chosun reports "some troops are still waiting inside the National Assembly. Some of the martial law troops are waiting for orders, having laid down their military gear. It is still undetermined whether all martial law troops that entered the National Assembly will withdraw."

  • The situation remains fluid with all focus now on President Yoon (on whether he issues orders to lift martial law) and the Ministry of National Defense and the leadership of the armed forces (on whether they maintain their stance of waiting for the president's orders or follow the National Assembly's instructions to lift martial law). 

STIR: SOFR Call Trade Turns Two-Way

Dec-03 16:48

Call trade turns two way as the South Korean geopol risk has taken a step back for the moment, short end rate support continues as the narrative swings back to whether the Fed will cut rates at the December 18 FOMC or not. Projected rate cuts into early 2025 moderating after surging late Monday following Fed Gov Waller's comments, current levels vs. late Monday (*) : Dec'24 cumulative -17.2bp (-20.0bp), Jan'25 -23.6bp (-24.3bp), Mar'25 -37.9bp (-37.5bp), May'25 -45.8bp (-45.5bp). Additional first half trade:

  • -5,000 0QZ4 96.50 calls, 1.5 vs. 96.17/0.14%
  • -40,000 SFRZ4 95.56/95.68 call spds, 5.0 vs. 95.58/0.44%
  • +4,000 0QF5 96.50/97.00 call spds, 5.0 96.295/0.15%
  • +30,000 0QZ4 96.43/96.62 call spds, 2.25-2.5 vs. 96.22
  • -7,000 SFRF5 95.62/95.75/95.87/96.00 put condor, 5.0 ref 95.80/0.06%
  • 11,500 SFRF5 95.56/95.68 put spds, 2.5

OPTIONS: Expiries for Dec04 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

Dec-03 16:41
  • EUR/USD: $1.0400(E1.7bln), $1.0450(E830mln), $1.0525(E1.3bln), $1.0575-85(E $1.0700(E1.0bln)
  • USD/JPY: Y143.50($2.2bln), Y147.00($540mln), Y151.15-25($935mln)
  • GBP/USD: $1.2500(Gbp550mln)
  • AUD/USD: $0.6640-50(A$580mln), $0.6500(A$1.3bln)
  • USD/CNY: Cny7.2000($2.1bln), Cny7.3000($768mln)

Related by topic

Gasoil
Marine Oil
Oil Positioning
OPEC
Freight
Jet Fuel
Gasoline
Fuel Oil
Diesel
Oil Options
Energy Data
US Natgas
TTF ICE
Asia LNG
Gas Positioning