MNI US Macro Weekly: Payrolls Drives Rates Recalibration

A somewhat robust payrolls report sees near-term Fed rate cut odds slashed with the Fed still in "wait and see" mode

MNI ANALYSIS:BOE September APF Decision: What you need to know

We think that the market is looking at the wrong measure of reserves when discussing the BOE’s September APF decision

MNI ASIA PAC Weekly Macro Wrap:

A weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region

STIR: BoE Pricing Steady Around 55bp Cuts Through Dec

GBP STIRs have pulled away from dovish session extremes given the adjustment in Fed pricing after the U.S. data. * SONIA futures flat to +5.5, with the strip bull flattening. * SFIZ5 & Z6 pierced respective May 9 & May 8 high before a retrace. Bulls will now look to target wider May highs in those contracts. * BoE-dated OIS hasn't been able to push consistently beyond 55bp of cuts through year-end, with markets probably needing to see greater deterioration in the labour market/a swifter than expected moderation in inflation to be comfortable with discounting a meaningful deviation from the once per quarter cutting cycle that has become familiar in recent months. * Comments from BoE dovish dissenter Taylor are due tomorrow. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BoE Meeting SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) Aug-25 4.005 -21.3 Sep-25 3.931 -28.6 Nov-25 3.758 -46.0 Dec-25 3.665 -55.2 Feb-26 3.531 -68.7 Mar-26 3.495 -72.2