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Modestly Weaker Ahead of CPI Monthly

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are cheaper (YM -6.0 & XM -5.5) after the U.S. Tsy curve bear flattens with yields 4-8bp higher following generally calmer market conditions in NY trade, amid an ongoing focus on bank risk. Fed Vice Chair Barr told Congress that the Federal Reserve is monitoring the risk that higher interest rates pose to the balance sheet of banks. U.S. equity indices were modestly weaker despite early losses associated with news that President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy continue to decline to meet for debt limit negotiations.

  • Cash ACGB benchmark yields are 5-6bp higher with the AU-US 10-year yield differential -1bp at -21bp.
  • Swaps open 4-5bp weaker with EFPs slightly tighter.
  • Bills strip bear steepens with pricing -5 to -9.
  • RBA dated OIS opens with pricing flat to 4bp firmer across meetings.
  • The local calendar has CPI Monthly for February slated for today. This data will be the last of the releases flagged by RBA Governor Lowe in a speech earlier in the month as key inputs to the interest rate decision in April. BBG consensus is expecting another slowing in the Y/Y rate to 7.2% from 7.4% in January and 8.4% in December.
  • The AOFM is scheduled to sell A$800mn of the 3.75% 21 May 2034 bond.
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