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Morgan Stanley: Data Suggests Supply Chains Remain More Resilient Than Expected

PERU
  • MS economists are calling for a last rate hike at the February meeting to a terminal rate of 8.00%, when real rates ex ante (rates minus inflation expectations 12 months ahead) will be at their highest level going back to the start of the 2000s.
  • Policymakers should remain attentive to new information, including economic activity data and inflation expectations, in deciding future action. The ongoing social unrest has added more uncertainty regarding the near-term outlook for inflation.
  • On top of this, more recently, roadblocks have begun to negatively impact the supply of different goods, putting pressures on already-high inflation (8.66%Y in January). Still, the latest CPI print came in well below Bloomberg surveyed expectations of 8.97%Y, suggesting that supply chains remain more resilient than expected.
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