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NBP: Most Expect Governor To Stick With Hawkish Rhetoric During Presser (2/2)

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  • Credit Agricole said that the statement has become more hawkish. In their view, this supports the scenario of interest-rate stabilisation in the coming quarters, with the first cut expected in 3Q25.
  • Goldman Sachs note that the statement appeared to echo the Governor's hawkish stance.
  • ING write that the statement emphasised upside risks to the inflation outlook and signalled the need for restrictive monetary policy. They note that the hawkish December presser was at odds with the balanced statement from that month and is only consistent with the latest document. They expect the Governor to stick with a hawkish tone at today's presser and warn that the NBP may fall behind the curve with cutting rates. According to ING, the inflation outlook is more benign than seen by the NBP. Furthermore, the economy is showing symptoms of being constrained by restrictive monetary policy (weak credit flow and private investment, large propensity to save among consumers), which makes the current hawkish tilt controversial.
  • mBank criticise noisy communications manifested in numerous minor changes to the statement. In their view, none of the additions to the statement provide new information, while the picture painted by incoming data has not changed drastically in the recent weeks. They point to the divergence between the NBP's view and economist consensus, but still expect the first rate cut to be delivered in March.
  • Millennium Bank describe the statement as "not more dovish and perhaps slightly more hawkish than the previous one" and say that it supports expectations of interest-rate stabilisation in the coming months. The next MPC meeting will be held in just three weeks' time and no fresh inflation data will be released in the interim. They see room for 100bp worth of rate cuts in 2H25.
  • Pekao expect today's presser to be hawkish in the wake of familiar revisions to the statement.
  • PKO write that the tone of the statement signals an elevated risk of another hawkish press conference, despite below-forecast inflation data.
  • Santander said that the statement was changed in line with Governor Glapinski's hawkish tilt. They interpret the document as a signal that the tone of today's presser will be similar to that from December.
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  • Credit Agricole said that the statement has become more hawkish. In their view, this supports the scenario of interest-rate stabilisation in the coming quarters, with the first cut expected in 3Q25.
  • Goldman Sachs note that the statement appeared to echo the Governor's hawkish stance.
  • ING write that the statement emphasised upside risks to the inflation outlook and signalled the need for restrictive monetary policy. They note that the hawkish December presser was at odds with the balanced statement from that month and is only consistent with the latest document. They expect the Governor to stick with a hawkish tone at today's presser and warn that the NBP may fall behind the curve with cutting rates. According to ING, the inflation outlook is more benign than seen by the NBP. Furthermore, the economy is showing symptoms of being constrained by restrictive monetary policy (weak credit flow and private investment, large propensity to save among consumers), which makes the current hawkish tilt controversial.
  • mBank criticise noisy communications manifested in numerous minor changes to the statement. In their view, none of the additions to the statement provide new information, while the picture painted by incoming data has not changed drastically in the recent weeks. They point to the divergence between the NBP's view and economist consensus, but still expect the first rate cut to be delivered in March.
  • Millennium Bank describe the statement as "not more dovish and perhaps slightly more hawkish than the previous one" and say that it supports expectations of interest-rate stabilisation in the coming months. The next MPC meeting will be held in just three weeks' time and no fresh inflation data will be released in the interim. They see room for 100bp worth of rate cuts in 2H25.
  • Pekao expect today's presser to be hawkish in the wake of familiar revisions to the statement.
  • PKO write that the tone of the statement signals an elevated risk of another hawkish press conference, despite below-forecast inflation data.
  • Santander said that the statement was changed in line with Governor Glapinski's hawkish tilt. They interpret the document as a signal that the tone of today's presser will be similar to that from December.