POLAND: NBP's Maslowska Says There May Be Scope For Rate Cuts Near End-2023
- NBP's Gabriela Maslowska suggested that she sees signs of a decline in inflation expectations. She wrote in an article for radiomaryja.pl that this process is not mature yet, which means that there is a risk of a return to monetary tightening, although the odds are high that it will be possible to avoid it. She sees a chance that the room for interest-rate cuts opens in 2024 or potentially near the end of 2023, adding that any initial cut would likely entail a phase of monetary easing.
- The lower house of parliament rejected all of the amendments to the budget bill submitted by the Senate and approved legislation in its initial form, sending it to the President for his signature.
- CNN and NBC reported yesterday that U.S. President Joe Biden is considering a trip to Europe to mark the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with multiple locations under consideration including Poland.
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EURJPY TECHS: Recovery Extends
- RES 4: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 145.83 High Dec 20
- RES 2: 143.45 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 142.94 Intraday high
- PRICE: 142.56@ 07:58 GMT Dec 28
- SUP 1: 141.14 Low Dec 27
- SUP 2: 139.96 Low Dec 22
- SUP 3: 138.81 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 138.06 Low Sep 28
EURJPY is trading higher today and this confirms an extension of the bounce from 138.81, the Dec 20 low. The recovery is considered corrective and the cross is approaching a key resistance at 143.45, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery and highlight potential for a climb above the 144.00 handle. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the 138.81 bear trigger.
BTP TECHS: (H3) Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 117.93 High Dec 13
- RES 3: 116.43 High Dec 15
- RES 2: 113.34/115.01 High Dec 16 / Low Nov 28
- RES 1: 111.81 High Dec 22
- PRICE: 109.40 @ Close Dec 23
- SUP 1: 109.22 Low Dec 27
- SUP 2: 108.82 Low Oct 21 (cont)
- SUP 3: 108.13 Low Sep 28 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 4: 107.71 3.5 proj of the Dec 7 - 13 price swing
BTP futures remain soft following the latest bearish price action and Tuesday’s move lower highlights a continuation of the trend. The contract has recently cleared support at 115.01, the Nov 28 low and this strengthened bearish conditions. Attention is on 108.13, the Sep 28 low (cont) and a key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 113.34, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
- RES 4: 0.8980 High Sep 29
- RES 3: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8867 High Oct 12
- RES 1: 0.8863 High Dec 27
- PRICE: 0.8849 @ 06:55 GMT Dec 28
- SUP 1: 0.8784/19 Low Dec 23 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8690/8593 50-day EMA / Low Dec 15
- SUP 3: 0.8562/47 200-dma / Low Dec 1 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
EURGBP maintains a bullish short-term tone and the recent break of resistance at 0.8829, the Nov 9 high, has reinforced this theme. This paves the way for a move towards 0.8907, a Fibonacci retracement point. Moving average studies have crossed to highlight a bullish backdrop and this reinforces the current trend direction. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8690, the 50-day EMA. A break would be bearish.
