• Understandably completely overshadowed by market moves on the continued fallout from US regional banking stresses, the NFIB small business optimism survey nudged higher to 90.9 in February although remained at historically depressed levels.
  • 3mth-ahead price plans meanwhile fell back to 25, just 1pt off December’s cycle low having popped 5pts higher in January.
  • It’s at a level that continues to imply a sizeable drop in Y/Y median CPI inflation over 2023, albeit only to a still above target rate at circa 3-4% judging by the rough historical relationship per the chart below.

US DATA: NFIB Pricing Plans Continue To Imply Sizeable Moderation In Y/Y Inflation Ahead

Last updated at:Mar-14 10:30By: Chris Harrison
  • Understandably completely overshadowed by market moves on the continued fallout from US regional banking stresses, the NFIB small business optimism survey nudged higher to 90.9 in February although remained at historically depressed levels.
  • 3mth-ahead price plans meanwhile fell back to 25, just 1pt off December’s cycle low having popped 5pts higher in January.
  • It’s at a level that continues to imply a sizeable drop in Y/Y median CPI inflation over 2023, albeit only to a still above target rate at circa 3-4% judging by the rough historical relationship per the chart below.

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