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NZGBS: Richer With US Tsys, Food Prices Down, PMI Up

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MarketsStoryFixed Income Bullets

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 1-2bps richer after US tsys finished moderately richer amid ongoing trade war uncertainty and recession concerns. 

  • President Trump threatened soaring tariffs on US imports of EU alcoholic beverages earlier. US Tsy Sec Bessent followed up with: "if trading partners want to ratchet things up, surplus countries will take the biggest hit".
  • Brief two-way trade as US tsys pared losses ahead of the latest PPI inflation data then retreated again following. Headline PPI printed 0.0% M/M, below the 0.3% consensus, but January was revised up 0.2pp to 0.6%; core PPI (ex-food/trade/energy) saw only a modest dip to 0.2% from 0.3% prior (0.3% expected, Jan unrevised at 0.3% rounded).
  • Initial jobless claims were lower than expected at 220k (sa, cons 225k) in the week to Mar 8 after a marginally upward revised 222k (initial 221k).
  • NZ’s manufacturing industry expanded at its fastest pace in more than two years in February, according to the PMI published by BNZ and Business NZ. The index rises to 53.9 from a revised 51.7 in January. That’s the highest level since August 2022.
  • Food Prices fall 0.5% m/m in February.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 24bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 70bps by November 2025.
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In local morning trade, NZGBs are 1-2bps richer after US tsys finished moderately richer amid ongoing trade war uncertainty and recession concerns. 

  • President Trump threatened soaring tariffs on US imports of EU alcoholic beverages earlier. US Tsy Sec Bessent followed up with: "if trading partners want to ratchet things up, surplus countries will take the biggest hit".
  • Brief two-way trade as US tsys pared losses ahead of the latest PPI inflation data then retreated again following. Headline PPI printed 0.0% M/M, below the 0.3% consensus, but January was revised up 0.2pp to 0.6%; core PPI (ex-food/trade/energy) saw only a modest dip to 0.2% from 0.3% prior (0.3% expected, Jan unrevised at 0.3% rounded).
  • Initial jobless claims were lower than expected at 220k (sa, cons 225k) in the week to Mar 8 after a marginally upward revised 222k (initial 221k).
  • NZ’s manufacturing industry expanded at its fastest pace in more than two years in February, according to the PMI published by BNZ and Business NZ. The index rises to 53.9 from a revised 51.7 in January. That’s the highest level since August 2022.
  • Food Prices fall 0.5% m/m in February.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 24bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 70bps by November 2025.