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NZGBS: Stronger, US Tsys Richer After PCE Deflator Data

BONDS

NZGBs opened stronger with benchmark yields 4-7bp lower and the 2/10 cash curve 3bp flatter. US Tsys bull flattened in NY trade ahead of the weekend. March core PCE deflator printed in line with expectations, but non-housing core services (Bloomberg’s calculation) cooled from +0.35% M/M to +0.2%, the softest print since Jul’22.

  • Swap rates opened 4-7bp lower with the 2s10s curve 3bp flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS opened little changed with the May meeting priced for 22bp of tightening.
  • This week's local calendar highlight will be the March Quarter Labour Market Report on Wednesday. BBG consensus expects some cooling in tight labour market conditions with the unemployment rate forecast to increase to 3.5% from 3.4% in Q4. Slowing demand for labour and increasing supply, due to an inflow of migrant workers, should dampen wage pressures and core inflation over time. However, Q1 wage growth is still expected to remain at Q4’s strong pace with a print of +1.1% Q/Q.
  • The RBA hands down its policy decision on Tuesday, with no change expected.
  • Further afield, US ISM Manufacturing PMI is slated for release today ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy decision. The ECB is scheduled to deliver its policy decision on Thursday.
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