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OIL: Crude Holds Onto Monday’s Gains With Material Event Risks Ahead

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Oil prices have been range trading following Monday’s jump as market moves have been limited ahead of this week’s US election result and Fed meeting. WTI is up 0.1% to $71.52/bbl after falling to around $71.30. Brent is 0.1% higher at $75.18/bbl, close to the intraday high. Yesterday’s weaker greenback supported the rally in crude but today the USD index is flat.

  • While risks of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East persist, this week oil markets are watching the outcome of the US election, which will hopefully be known on Wednesday, the FOMC meeting on Thursday and US inventories with industry-based data on Tuesday and the official EIA on Wednesday. In China, there is October trade data on Thursday and the legislature standing committee is meeting this week, which may result in further stimulus.
  • On the supply side, near-term there are risks to Gulf of Mexico production from Tropical Storm Rafael, and further out, another Iranian attack on Israel could result in its oil infrastructure being targeted.
  • Later US October services ISM/PMI and September trade print, as well as UK October services/composite PMIs. The eurogroup meeting continues and the ECB’s Lagarde and Schnabel speak.
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Oil prices have been range trading following Monday’s jump as market moves have been limited ahead of this week’s US election result and Fed meeting. WTI is up 0.1% to $71.52/bbl after falling to around $71.30. Brent is 0.1% higher at $75.18/bbl, close to the intraday high. Yesterday’s weaker greenback supported the rally in crude but today the USD index is flat.

  • While risks of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East persist, this week oil markets are watching the outcome of the US election, which will hopefully be known on Wednesday, the FOMC meeting on Thursday and US inventories with industry-based data on Tuesday and the official EIA on Wednesday. In China, there is October trade data on Thursday and the legislature standing committee is meeting this week, which may result in further stimulus.
  • On the supply side, near-term there are risks to Gulf of Mexico production from Tropical Storm Rafael, and further out, another Iranian attack on Israel could result in its oil infrastructure being targeted.
  • Later US October services ISM/PMI and September trade print, as well as UK October services/composite PMIs. The eurogroup meeting continues and the ECB’s Lagarde and Schnabel speak.