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Philly Fed Manufacturing Shows No Sign Of Latest Empire Slump

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  • The Philly Fed manufacturing survey was slightly stronger than expected in January, rising from-13.8 to -8.9 (cons -11.0), whilst the 6-month ahead outlook is the highest since May at 4.9 (+6.8pts).
  • Interestingly, as was the case in Aug, it showed no sign of the much sharper 22pt slump in the Empire survey to -33 earlier in the week.
  • Regional Fed mfg surveys have on average pointed to downside risk to the ISM mfg readings since last summer, although the ISM has started to close that gap, falling into contraction territory with 49 in Nov and then 48.4 in Dec.
  • This move in contraction territory for the ISM mfg has coincided with hard data starting to follow suit, with IP seeing two months of surprisingly large declines (released as part of a various softer than expected data yesterday).

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  • The Philly Fed manufacturing survey was slightly stronger than expected in January, rising from-13.8 to -8.9 (cons -11.0), whilst the 6-month ahead outlook is the highest since May at 4.9 (+6.8pts).
  • Interestingly, as was the case in Aug, it showed no sign of the much sharper 22pt slump in the Empire survey to -33 earlier in the week.
  • Regional Fed mfg surveys have on average pointed to downside risk to the ISM mfg readings since last summer, although the ISM has started to close that gap, falling into contraction territory with 49 in Nov and then 48.4 in Dec.
  • This move in contraction territory for the ISM mfg has coincided with hard data starting to follow suit, with IP seeing two months of surprisingly large declines (released as part of a various softer than expected data yesterday).