Statistics Poland will release preliminary November CPI data at the top of the hour (09:00GMT/10:00CET), with consensus looking for a deceleration to +4.6% Y/Y from +5.0% recorded in October. Most analysts expect the decline to be driven by a high comparative base in fuels. State-owned retailer Orlen was widely suspected of artificially lowering fuel prices in the lead-up to the parliamentary election in October 2023, with prices normalising thereafter.

• BGK expect headline inflation to fall to +4.7% Y/Y and core inflation to rise to +4.4% Y/Y.
• Citi Handlowy write that inflation may fall to +4.5% Y/Y, mostly due to the base effect in fuels. However, they expect inflation to keep rising until March 2025, when it may reach a peak around +5.3% Y/Y. They note that the government's decisions on freezing energy prices is a key factor shaping the future inflation path. The decision to suspend the capacity fee lowers their CPI forecast for 2025 to +4.3% Y/Y from +4.5%.
• Credit Agricole expect inflation to inch lower to +4.9% Y/Y, mostly due to the impact of a higher comparative base in fuels. At the same time, they expect core inflation to accelerate to +4.6% Y/Y from +4.1% prior because of a lower comparative base in categories such as communication or recreation and culture.
• ING note that inflation will likely decline to +4.6% Y/Y, with core inflation seen unchanged at +4.1% (albeit with risks skewed to the upside).
• Millennium Bank expect inflation to print at +4.6% Y/Y, which will be coupled with an uptick in core inflation to +4.3% from +4.1% prior, in their view. The expect headline inflation to return to +5.0% in December and rise further at the beginning of 2025, but the government's decisions on administered energy prices will lower its peak.
• Pekao write that inflation likely fell to +4.6% Y/Y.
• PKO see inflation at +4.6% Y/Y, mostly due to a strong increase in fuel prices in November 2023. However, the decline in inflation may transitory and followed by a return towards +5% Y/Y.
• Santander align with consensus in expecting CPI to print at +4.6% Y/Y but they warn that the decline will be temporary and inflation will re-accelerate in December. They expect to see longer streaks of inflation prints with a four handle only in 2025.