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POLAND: Higher Comparative Base In Fuels Expected To Weigh On Headline Inflation

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

Statistics Poland will release preliminary November CPI data at the top of the hour (09:00GMT/10:00CET), with consensus looking for a deceleration to +4.6% Y/Y from +5.0% recorded in October. Most analysts expect the decline to be driven by a high comparative base in fuels. State-owned retailer Orlen was widely suspected of artificially lowering fuel prices in the lead-up to the parliamentary election in October 2023, with prices normalising thereafter.

  • BGK expect headline inflation to fall to +4.7% Y/Y and core inflation to rise to +4.4% Y/Y.
  • Citi Handlowy write that inflation may fall to +4.5% Y/Y, mostly due to the base effect in fuels. However, they expect inflation to keep rising until March 2025, when it may reach a peak around +5.3% Y/Y. They note that the government's decisions on freezing energy prices is a key factor shaping the future inflation path. The decision to suspend the capacity fee lowers their CPI forecast for 2025 to +4.3% Y/Y from +4.5%.
  • Credit Agricole expect inflation to inch lower to +4.9% Y/Y, mostly due to the impact of a higher comparative base in fuels. At the same time, they expect core inflation to accelerate to +4.6% Y/Y from +4.1% prior because of a lower comparative base in categories such as communication or recreation and culture.
  • ING note that inflation will likely decline to +4.6% Y/Y, with core inflation seen unchanged at +4.1% (albeit with risks skewed to the upside).
  • Millennium Bank expect inflation to print at +4.6% Y/Y, which will be coupled with an uptick in core inflation to +4.3% from +4.1% prior, in their view. The expect headline inflation to return to +5.0% in December and rise further at the beginning of 2025, but the government's decisions on administered energy prices will lower its peak.
  • Pekao write that inflation likely fell to +4.6% Y/Y.
  • PKO see inflation at +4.6% Y/Y, mostly due to a strong increase in fuel prices in November 2023. However, the decline in inflation may transitory and followed by a return towards +5% Y/Y.
  • Santander align with consensus in expecting CPI to print at +4.6% Y/Y but they warn that the decline will be temporary and inflation will re-accelerate in December. They expect to see longer streaks of inflation prints with a four handle only in 2025.
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Statistics Poland will release preliminary November CPI data at the top of the hour (09:00GMT/10:00CET), with consensus looking for a deceleration to +4.6% Y/Y from +5.0% recorded in October. Most analysts expect the decline to be driven by a high comparative base in fuels. State-owned retailer Orlen was widely suspected of artificially lowering fuel prices in the lead-up to the parliamentary election in October 2023, with prices normalising thereafter.

  • BGK expect headline inflation to fall to +4.7% Y/Y and core inflation to rise to +4.4% Y/Y.
  • Citi Handlowy write that inflation may fall to +4.5% Y/Y, mostly due to the base effect in fuels. However, they expect inflation to keep rising until March 2025, when it may reach a peak around +5.3% Y/Y. They note that the government's decisions on freezing energy prices is a key factor shaping the future inflation path. The decision to suspend the capacity fee lowers their CPI forecast for 2025 to +4.3% Y/Y from +4.5%.
  • Credit Agricole expect inflation to inch lower to +4.9% Y/Y, mostly due to the impact of a higher comparative base in fuels. At the same time, they expect core inflation to accelerate to +4.6% Y/Y from +4.1% prior because of a lower comparative base in categories such as communication or recreation and culture.
  • ING note that inflation will likely decline to +4.6% Y/Y, with core inflation seen unchanged at +4.1% (albeit with risks skewed to the upside).
  • Millennium Bank expect inflation to print at +4.6% Y/Y, which will be coupled with an uptick in core inflation to +4.3% from +4.1% prior, in their view. The expect headline inflation to return to +5.0% in December and rise further at the beginning of 2025, but the government's decisions on administered energy prices will lower its peak.
  • Pekao write that inflation likely fell to +4.6% Y/Y.
  • PKO see inflation at +4.6% Y/Y, mostly due to a strong increase in fuel prices in November 2023. However, the decline in inflation may transitory and followed by a return towards +5% Y/Y.
  • Santander align with consensus in expecting CPI to print at +4.6% Y/Y but they warn that the decline will be temporary and inflation will re-accelerate in December. They expect to see longer streaks of inflation prints with a four handle only in 2025.