Politico-AUKUS Participants Push Expansion Ahead Of Elections

Politico is reporting that according to a senior diplomat, the gov'ts of the US, UK, and Australia are pushing to deepen and widen the AUKUS defence partnership as soon as possible in the face of elections in each country. Politico reports a 'senior diplomat involved in talks' saying that Canada and Japan could join the 'Pillar II' section of AUKUS by late-2024/early-2025. This section concerns the agreement of deals to develop advanced military technology.

• The report claims concerns among all three current participants that the re-election of Donald Trump as US President in particular could derail the organisation.
• While Trump's stance has been portrayed as isolationist, his frequent barbs aimed at NATO have largely come at the expense of those countries deemed "delinquent" in not spending enough on defence.
• Given that the UK spends more than the 2% NATO target on defence, and Australia is seeking to purchase US submarines, Trump may be more inclined to maintain the grouping. This is especially the case given that AUKUS is intended to counter growing Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific, as opposed to the Russian-focused NATO.
• In Australia, should the next election lead to a change in gov't it could result in some frictions. Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton has warnedagainst using UK-built subs in the 'Pillar I' of AUKUS, earning a backlash from the gov't and the UK's High Commissioner.
• In the UK, the opposition centre-left Labour party (widely expected to win the next election) has promised its “absolute" support for AUKUS.