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Potential ECB Spillover In Focus With Little Else Scheduled

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  • Cash Tsys see ongoing cheapening pressure in recent hours in a reversal of a bid through Asia hours amidst low volumes with the Lunar New Year. The downward pressure is possibly helped by some spillover from EU FI (Nagel sees inflation return to target without a recession, Kazimir wants to deliver two more 50bp hikes), even if Fed expectations are little changed on the day. ECB’s Lagarde to speak later at 1215ET.
  • 2YY +1.0bp at 4.181%, 5YY +1.7bp at 3.579%, 10YY +2.4bp at 3.502%, 30YY +2.9bp at 3.684%.
  • TYH3 trades 4 ticks lower at 114-30, close to Friday’s low of 114-27+. Support is seen nearby at 114-16 (Jan 18 low) whilst resistance remains at 116-08 (Jan 19 high).
  • A minimal US docket today, with FOMC now in media blackout and data limited to the leading index for Dec at 1000ET.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 13W, $48B 26W bill auctions – 1130ET
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  • Cash Tsys see ongoing cheapening pressure in recent hours in a reversal of a bid through Asia hours amidst low volumes with the Lunar New Year. The downward pressure is possibly helped by some spillover from EU FI (Nagel sees inflation return to target without a recession, Kazimir wants to deliver two more 50bp hikes), even if Fed expectations are little changed on the day. ECB’s Lagarde to speak later at 1215ET.
  • 2YY +1.0bp at 4.181%, 5YY +1.7bp at 3.579%, 10YY +2.4bp at 3.502%, 30YY +2.9bp at 3.684%.
  • TYH3 trades 4 ticks lower at 114-30, close to Friday’s low of 114-27+. Support is seen nearby at 114-16 (Jan 18 low) whilst resistance remains at 116-08 (Jan 19 high).
  • A minimal US docket today, with FOMC now in media blackout and data limited to the leading index for Dec at 1000ET.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 13W, $48B 26W bill auctions – 1130ET