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Pricing 1/4 Chance Of 100bp At Next BoE; Terminal Rate Still Falling

STIR

Checking in on the implied BoE rate path ahead of PMIs, and after another eventful few days in UK politics:

  • November MPC market pricing currently around 81bp (ie 75bp hike priced, 25% or so chance of a 100bp raise).
  • Peak rates are now seen Jun or Aug 2023 at 5.05%. That's about a 17bp drop from Friday's close and well off the 6.25% terminal peak.

Source: BBG, MNI

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